[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Johnny RoastBeef]

Very unlikely to do this on another country’s soil without explicit permission and without article 5 being applied then presidential approval. So no, doubt it, unless under direct attack.

If Russia moved troops across the Polish border, Poland would have no issues with US military assisting with thier explosion. (Edit: should have been expulsion, but explosion works. )

Article 5 would be a formality.

 

[US Seagull]

For the tank nerds, a little something about the tanks heading to Ukraine:

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Very unlikely to do this on another country’s soil without explicit permission and without article 5 being applied then presidential approval. So no, doubt it, unless under direct attack.

I would think it very unlikely that the Americans would allow the collapse of NATO by not invoking Article 5 in this scenario. It’s the entire point of NATO. Such an operation by the Russians would be a suicide mission and the immediate end of Putin and the gang.

 

[SeagullinExile]

You speak as if there are battalions of soldiers with equipment wandering around in NATO uniforms or something. Aside from small UN peacekeeping forces, NATO is an on-paper alliance which thankfully has not ever been properly tested.

If, for example, Russia were to encroach on Poland, it will be the Polish army responding. In the coming days and weeks, NATO will deliberate what to do - almost certainly attempt de-escalation.

Whilst Russia have so far been pretty incompetent from everything I’ve seen and read, we’ve never really seen how NATO works when article 5 is actioned.

Article 5 is simple. An attack on one member is an attack on all. NATO would mobilize and strike back.

 

[fly high]

You speak as if there are battalions of soldiers with equipment wandering around in NATO uniforms or something. Aside from small UN peacekeeping forces, NATO is an on-paper alliance which thankfully has not ever been properly tested.

If, for example, Russia were to encroach on Poland, it will be the Polish army responding. In the coming days and weeks, NATO will deliberate what to do - almost certainly attempt de-escalation.

Whilst Russia have so far been pretty incompetent from everything I’ve seen and read, we’ve never really seen how NATO works when article 5 is actioned.

NATO’s military presence in the east of the Alliance

An important component of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture is military presence in the eastern part of Alliance territory. In recent years, Allies have enhanced NATO’s forward presence by establishing multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland...

www.nato.int

NATO has battle groups in a number of Eastern European countries including Poland.

 

[beorhthelm]

NATO’s military presence in the east of the Alliance

An important component of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture is military presence in the eastern part of Alliance territory. In recent years, Allies have enhanced NATO’s forward presence by establishing multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland...

www.nato.int

NATO has battle groups in a number of Eastern European countries including Poland.

was about post same. there are 10's of thousands of Nato troops, airforces and so on deployed across Nato members. its kinda the point, continuous integration and traing between forces. for example UK have deployment in Estonia and Eurofighters in several countries.

 

[Triggaaar]

Potentially. However, if I had to guess, I’d think that China have had a word with Rishi. Russia gets the weapons from China if we escalate the war anymore by providing game changing equipment.

That doesn't make sense, because it would essentially be China saying 'if you give Ukraine weapons to win this war, we'll give Russia weapons to stop them, because we want either a) the war to go on for longer or b) Russia to win it'. And China saying that to the West would be an issue.

 

[sparkie]

The Pavilion lit up in the colours of the Ukrainian flag.

Nice one Brighton !

 

[Hugo Rune]

That doesn't make sense, because it would essentially be China saying 'if you give Ukraine weapons to win this war, we'll give Russia weapons to stop them, because we want either a) the war to go on for longer or b) Russia to win it'. And China saying that to the West would be an issue.

I think this message would be very indirect.

Strategically, I believe that the worst scenario for China is a destabilised Russia caused by a Ukrainian victory and subsequent decapitated leadership. The second worse scenario for them is extreme sanctions due to overt support for Russia. They’d obviously like to have a global influence but selling arms to Russia is attractive too financially. They have absolutely no reason to want a Ukrainian victory so point a) or b) are actually their preferred outcomes.

Clearly they’d never indirectly tell the West WHY they are pursuing a certain strategy but just sending the message ‘we don’t believe you should be escalating the war in Ukraine by sending that country jets, if you do we will reconsider Russia’s requests to buy arms from us’ has, in my opinion, found it’s way to Rishi.

 

[Triggaaar]

I think this message would be very indirect.

Strategically, I believe that the worst scenario for China is a destabilised Russia caused by a Ukrainian victory and subsequent decapitated leadership. The second worse scenario for them is extreme sanctions due to overt support for Russia. They’d obviously like to have a global influence but selling arms to Russia is attractive too financially. They have absolutely no reason to want a Ukrainian victory so point a) or b) are actually their preferred outcomes.

Point a) war going on for longer, will destabilise Russia. If Russia withdraws from Ukraine, I'm not sure that would be worse for China. Russia could withdraw and start recovering. They'd still be free to trade with China.

Clearly they’d never indirectly tell the West WHY they are pursuing a certain strategy but just sending the message ‘we don’t believe you should be escalating the war in Ukraine by sending that country jets, if you do we will reconsider Russia’s requests to buy arms from us’ has, in my opinion, found it’s way to Rishi.

If that message gets to the West I'd expect the West to discuss it with China - ie, You are talking of sending weapons to Russia, who invaded a peaceful sovereign nation - what are your intentions, are you trying to help Russia win this war, or are you hoping to make the war go on indefinitely? And I'd expect the West to explain that supporting Russia militarily will lead to sanctions etc.

 

[Eric the meek]

I've no evidence to back this up, but I do wonder that when the US accused China of being - about - to arm Russia, that they knew that china already was arming Russia, and did it to warn them off. I see the Chinese have already said the US claim was false.

 

[Sirnormangall]

I've watched quite a lot of that Chanel. And it amazes me how he has managed not to have been imprisoned. He does phrase his questions quite ambiguously, however. Technicalities don't usually keep people out of jail in Russia. They normally don't even need a good reason to jail or assassinate people

Fascinating- thanks for posting. Seems like the younger generation in Russia know what’s really happening - and it’s that generation that Putin will need to win the war.

 

[raymondo]

Inspirational...

Zelensky's address on 1-year anniversary of Russia's all-out war

Editor's Note: The following is the address by President Volodymyr Zelensky published by the President's Office on Feb. 24, 2023, the day that marks one year since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Great People of Great Ukraine! A year ago, on this day, from this very...

kyivindependent.com

 

[Eric the meek]

Inspirational...

Zelensky's address on 1-year anniversary of Russia's all-out war

Editor's Note: The following is the address by President Volodymyr Zelensky published by the President's Office on Feb. 24, 2023, the day that marks one year since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Great People of Great Ukraine! A year ago, on this day, from this very...

kyivindependent.com

Think back to a year ago, a time when the people of Kyiv were in shock and fear. The rest of Ukraine and the rest of the world looked on in disbelief.

Imagine how Zelensky must have felt. He knew he was target number 1, at risk from Russian operatives at large in Kyiv, and so he thought, a stream of Russian troops who would soon be on the capital's streets.

He was offered safe passage out of Ukraine. But he didn't take it. What courage. Compare that courage to Putin, who is too scared to catch a plane.

Today, a year and a day later, look at what has changed.

Russia has lost sons, arms, money, friends, reputation, goodwill, trust, half of its war chest, future export customers and the income from them.
It will soon be facing a future of a decades long, humiliating international hunt for justice for its war criminals, a crippling reparation bill and possibly an existential crisis.

Zelensky has won the peace hands down. It looks likely he will also win the war, repelling an invasion by what was previously the world's second largest military power.

As for Putin, he is reduced to relying on the Chinese to broker a peace for him.

 

[raymondo]

 

[raymondo]

Think back to a year ago, a time when the people of Kyiv were in shock and fear. The rest of Ukraine and the rest of the world looked on in disbelief.

Imagine how Zelensky must have felt. He knew he was target number 1, at risk from Russian operatives at large in Kyiv, and so he thought, a stream of Russian troops who would soon be on the capital's streets.

He was offered safe passage out of Ukraine. But he didn't take it. What courage. Compare that courage to Putin, who is too scared to catch a plane.

Today, a year and a day later, look at what has changed.

Russia has lost sons, arms, money, friends, reputation, goodwill, trust, half of its war chest, future export customers and the income from them.
It will soon be facing a future of a decades long, humiliating international hunt for justice for its war criminals, a crippling reparation bill and possibly an existential crisis.

Zelensky has won the peace hands down. It looks likely he will also win the war, repelling an invasion by what was previously the world's second largest military power.

As for Putin, he is reduced to relying on the Chinese to broker a peace for him.

And here is the beginning of Ukraine's resistance @Eric the meek ...one year ago...

 

[Worried Man Blues]

It is unbelievable we, the rest of the world, are letting one country just blow another to smithereens.

 

[Triggaaar]

It is unbelievable we, the rest of the world, are letting one country just blow another to smithereens.

We, the free world, need to wake up to who is and isn't on our side. It is not just Russia who are enemies of freedom, it is also China. In China the government are feeding the public the same lies that Russia is feeding its people. They don't care about the suffering of Ukraine, they are blaming Nato for this war.

We need to plan a future without China.

 

[Worried Man Blues]

We, the free world, need to wake up to who is and isn't on our side. It is not just Russia who are enemies of freedom, it is also China. In China the government are feeding the public the same lies that Russia is feeding its people. They don't care about the suffering of Ukraine, they are blaming Nato for this war.

We need to plan a future without China.

Also all the others that didn't vote or voted against the other day. The leaders must just something instead of letting him get away with this. If it was against London, Paris Berlin, New York getting blown to bits every day we wouldn't fanny about.

 

[sparkie]

The Chinese may send the odd drone and few lorry loads of shells - all disguised as coming from North Korea - but I really don't think they want to lose all their western export markets. That would eventually lead to regime change in China.