[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Machiavelli]

The “peace talks”’seem to follow one pattern. Putin bombs the life out of an area. Opens talks which I imagine consist of “want to surrender now? No? Okay”

Putin then up’s the ante. Chemical weapons this time round I fear.

The media is giving a very rosy picture of the war. Ukraine is having the life bombed out of it. Yes, the Russians have met some resistance. They were bound to. But make no mistake, Russia will win.

Difficult to know what/who to believe at the moment, so many conflicting stories. Re winning, I'm not so sure - and even if they do, what does 'win' mean ? They might have control of the complete wasteland that Ukraine will be by the time they've finished, but they'll equally have global pariah status, and a ruined economy for decades with all that entails. They might also face years of guerrilla warfare in the Ukraine - I don't see any surrender any time soon, regardless of what Putin does. Pyrrhic victory perhaps

"The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose." Henry Kissinger

 

[Triggaaar]

I still can't quite get my head round the fact that a ruthless gangster, who has never been near a free election in his life, can seize control of a nuclear super power, rule his people by fear, crush, arrest or poison any and all dissent, plunder his nation's wealth to the tune of untold billions, and invade peaceful neighbouring countries, killing countless innocent people, because he has a lifelong grudge over the break up of the Soviet Union.

Having written it down, it still sounds totally absurd.

And get the nod of approval from China.

Or maybe that bit shouldn't be a surprise.

 

[um bongo molongo]

Yeah shes actually a presenter on Channel 1 which is a big station, already been taken to jail.

She made a video in advance too

English translations for you to read, admits its all BS propaganda

[tweet]1503457457393352706[/tweet]

This deserves to get shared as widely as possible. Not least because it would make it harder to kill her for the Russians. But also because things like this are how the overthrow of Putin might start. A Rosa Parks moment. If she can inspire more like her, there’s hope.

 

[Eric the meek]

In this instance, a woman that they have been trusting to tell them the facts for years is coming clean, it is far more persuasive than an unknown person on the street. I am in awe of all the people that know full well that the state is willing to imprison, torture, and murder dissidents, but feel it is their moral duty to tell the truth, because the lies allow murder elsewhere to go unpunished, I don't know if I would have the courage.

Yes, that moral question. Do you save many others, or save yourself?

I suspect that I wouldn't have the courage, perhaps for much of my life, but I also hope and believe that at some point, something would happen that would change that.

Russia needs more people like that TV presenter. But it needs her to be in front of the screen, working subversively, not locked up in prison.

Russians have already tasted western consumerism. They liked it.
The Kremlin now need to explain why it's all gone. Will Russians buy the excuses offered up by the Kremlin?

Imagine a flow of ideas from the western world, to bring down the Kremlin. Will the Kremlin be able to shut it all down?

No. They will be firefighting forever.

 

[beorhthelm]

And get the nod of approval from China.

doubt it. war is causing commodity prices to surge and thats bad for business in a production based economy.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I suspect it was the initial place that foreign military volunteers go to. Like the handful of AWOL British Army volunteers ( my guess, no evidence ).

Mirror reckons 3 ex - British soldiers were killed in this missile attack.

Tomorrow's front page.

RIP

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Of course they’re going to take it.
It’s Russia Vs Ukraine.

Kyiv is now booby trapped and so set up for ambushes that it will be like Stalingrad. It'll take many months to take it.

 

[Triggaaar]

And get the nod of approval from China.

doubt it. war is causing commodity prices to surge and thats bad for business in a production based economy.

Doubt it? I wasn't predicting the future, it's already happened. China's media are repeating the propaganda from Russian state media. China are blaming the west for the 'special operation'. China are avoiding the questions of whether Russia have asked for military help, and whether they'll offer it (they have said that some reports were 'fake news', but that could be any little part of a report, and when drawn specifically on whether they've been asked for military help, they've not answered).

China are currently on Russia's side.

 

[Triggaaar]

Kyiv is now booby trapped and so set up for ambushes that it will be like Stalingrad. It'll take many months to take it.

Hitler didn't have access to the kind of weapons that Putin does. And Ukraine doesn't have the reinforcements for Kyiv like Russia had for Stalingrad.

Ukraine has to stop Russia resupplying the forces around Kyiv.

 

[Eric the meek]

Doubt it? I wasn't predicting the future, it's already happened. China's media are repeating the propaganda from Russian state media. China are blaming the west for the 'special operation'. China are avoiding the questions of whether Russia have asked for military help, and whether they'll offer it (they have said that some reports were 'fake news', but that could be any little part of a report, and when drawn specifically on whether they've been asked for military help, they've not answered).

China are currently on Russia's side.

Next step - sanctions on China.

How about a US import ban on Chinese tat?
How about extending that ban to the EU and UK?

That's the bulk of China's export market.

 

[beorhthelm]

China are currently on Russia's side.

China is on China's side. they'll play both Russia and the west for as long as it is prudent to do so.

 

[Eeyore]

Why are we so keen to take refugees from Afghanistan (and across the channel) and yet we appear to want little to do with the people fleeing Ukraine? I know we felt a responsibly for some Afghan refugees who worked for us as translators but we took in many more Afghan refugees than that and I'd be amazed if we undertook any basic checks before allowing them entry. In terms of security risks to this country, does anyone truly believe that Ukrainians present more of a danger than people from Afghanistan? So why aren't we sending military aircraft to Poland or Hungary to bring some of the Ukrainians to the UK? Is it a sign of yet more anti-European bias from Boris? I grow more despondent with this country and our government day by day.

Spend a couple of minutes thinking about how both situations occurred. The way refugees dispersed, and the potential escape routes.

Also, remember that a significant number of Afghans who arrived here were British nationals.

 

[Eric the meek]

War should be over by early May - Ukrainian advisor.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60746557 at 5:11


'A Ukrainian government advisor said he expects the war to be over by early May at the latest, when Russia runs out of resources to attack its neighbour.
"I think that no later than in May, early May, we should have a peace agreement," said Oleksiy Arestovich, an advisor to the Ukrainian president's chief of staff, late on Monday.

He outlined two possible outcomes in the months ahead.

"There will either be a peace deal struck very quickly, within a week or two, with troop withdrawal and everything, or there will be an attempt to scrape together some, say, Syrians for a round two and, when we grind them too, an agreement by mid-April or late April," he said.

The Pentagon had earlier claimed that Russia is trying to recruit Syrians to fight in Ukraine - though this has not been verified.

Arestovich is not personally involved in the talks between Ukraine and Russia.'

 

[beorhthelm]

War should be over by early May - Ukrainian advisor.
...

his thesis may be sound, but overlooks the capacity of Russia to just dig in, sit in Ukrainian territory with random shelling and a few airstrikes each night. unless there is something for Putin in the talks they'll not come to a conclusion. and on that basis they could reach an agreement this week.

 

[Zebedee]

Spend a couple of minutes thinking about how both situations occurred. The way refugees dispersed, and the potential escape routes.

Also, remember that a significant number of Afghans who arrived here were British nationals.

A rather patronising response if I may say so, which completely missed the point I was trying to make. And for what it's worth, less than a third of the Afghans who entered the UK were British Nationals. I'll leave things there.

 

[Eric the meek]

his thesis may be sound, but overlooks the capacity of Russia to just dig in, sit in Ukrainian territory with random shelling and a few airstrikes each night. unless there is something for Putin in the talks they'll not come to a conclusion. and on that basis they could reach an agreement this week.

Yes, you're describing what would seem to be happening now.

Combined with Arestovich's analysis, the US claiming that the Russians have asked Beijing for military assistance, and the possible drafting of Syrian fighters, it may be that the Russians can see an end to their resources, and are using them sparingly.

 

[raymondo]

Next step - sanctions on China.

How about a US import ban on Chinese tat?
How about extending that ban to the EU and UK?

That's the bulk of China's export market.

And we could all just stop buying stuff made in China

 

[The Clamp]

Kyiv is now booby trapped and so set up for ambushes that it will be like Stalingrad. It'll take many months to take it.

Or seconds.

 

[nicko31]

China is on China's side. they'll play both Russia and the west for as long as it is prudent to do so.

China are on Russia's side, but getting involved in the war is another thing. They want economic power and its a key year for President Xi, Western sanctions would be highly destructive

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

And we could all just stop buying stuff made in China

Unfortunately most white goods are manufactured in China ….


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