Over 60s (+same household) stay on lockdown. Everyone else out?

[dwayne]

140,000 deaths.

7M hospitalised sounds rather a lot too!!!

Would be interested to see someone with a bit more of a grasp of the current numbers and how they apply to the overall population having a go at this. I got ancy yesterday with the 'let's just got for herd immunity' approach but I would still like to see someone have a sensible go at the numbers

No 140k hopsitalised. Not deaths.

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[Rugrat]

No 140k hopsitalised. Not deaths.

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Yes, but my simple numbers gets 7M hospitalised and 140,000 deaths (of under 60's)

I'm sure it's a bad assumption but would like to see a decent (better) stab at the numbers along the lines that I put up

 

[dazzer6666]

I would add, importantly - if you can work from home then keep working from home. I know of a lot of people happily doing this now who hadn't/couldn't/weren't allowed to before.

Definitely.....I'm pretty sure we will. No need for hordes of people to descend on Canary Wharf in our case and many like us. We'd already dropped to a formal 2 weeks on/2 weeks off rota before lockdown happened to limit numbers

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

numbers ive seen its nearly all, >90%. may have been non-UK data, cant refind easily.

Yeah, it’s what I’ve seen but it’s best to use the same source I guess

 

[knocky1]

The population over 60 is about 16 million people. At the moment us over 60's can shop fairly safely due to social distancing. We won't be able to if it's business as usual for the rest of the population.

So one of the youngsters will have to do my shopping for a start, another take my rubbish out, another walk the dog and one of you will have to do my 30 miles a week running. F*** knows who we will trust with the allotment.

I think it should be based on fitness.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Too wide a band of ages ..60-79 for example ..I’m fiit and able and working and at the bottom end of that range ..don’t anticipate being the same at 70 plus

 

[yxee]

This makes sense to me and feels like the only sensible way to get out of this. Keep the high risk safe while the younger generations get immunity (and restart the economy). It might be difficult politically for the Tories who rely on the elderly vote in some areas - "why should we stay at home when everyone else is allowed out?"

 

[darkwolf666]

Look at these figures which I'm taking as true....(I hope they are anyway!)

No. of deaths by Age Group in England till 5PM 14th April.
0-19 Yrs : 8
20 - 39 Yrs : 92
40 - 59 Yrs : 892
60 - 79 Yrs : 4655
80+ : 6009
Total : 11656 (yday 11005) - Increase by 651

Note - Figures provided above only for England region not for whole UK from hospitals only.

What if.... just the over 60s and people who live in same household stay on lockdown and everyone else are released ?! Herd immunity could be achieved reasonably quickly but would the NHS still be overwhelmed? Food for thought or a stupid idea?

Can I just clarify your definition of lockdown?

Do you mean as at present, i.e. for work, shopping, exercise or do you mean as per the 1.5 million vulnerable who are shielding!

Keeping the 1.5 million indoors would definitely save lives, but how long can you expect people to do that for?

 

[GT49er]

Can I just clarify your definition of lockdown?

Do you mean as at present, i.e. for work, shopping, exercise or do you mean as per the 1.5 million vulnerable who are shielding!

Keeping the 1.5 million indoors would definitely save lives, but how long can you expect people to do that for?

I think a lot of people are confusing the 1.5 million of us on shield with the over 60s, or over 70s or whatever.

The 1.5 million of us on shield (no popping out to the shops for essentials, no one hour a day out for exercise, etc.) for 12 weeks are probably mostly over 60 to be sure - but people on the shield list are only there because of underlying health conditions, not just age. There are far more than 1.5 million over 60s (and over 70s) in the population than 1.5 million, and most of them, like everyone else, can go shopping, go out for exercise, etc.

The idea that some people seem to have, that all over 70s are on a 12 week lockdown is just bolleaux. There are no separate rules as such for the over 60s and over 70s, only those specified as being of greater risk...

 

[darkwolf666]

I think a lot of people are confusing the 1.5 million of us on shield with the over 60s, or over 70s or whatever.

The 1.5 million of us on shield (no popping out to the shops for essentials, no one hour a day out for exercise, etc.) for 12 weeks are probably mostly over 60 to be sure - but people on the shield list are only there because of underlying health conditions, not just age. There are far more than 1.5 million over 60s (and over 70s) in the population than 1.5 million, and most of them, like everyone else, can go shopping, go out for exercise, etc.

The idea that some people seem to have, that all over 70s are on a 12 week lockdown is just bolleaux. There are no separate rules as such for the over 60s and over 70s, only those specified as being of greater risk...

So, so true...

Is that how we are going to be known now, on the shield, bit like being on the Dole or on the blob (sorry).

"I can't come in for my UC meeting, as I'm on the Shield"!

 

[GT49er]

Is that how we are going to be known now, on the shield, bit like being on the Dole or on the blob (sorry).

"I can't come in for my UC meeting, as I'm on the Shield"!

I doubt it, but I'm sure people will continue to confuse and conflate the shield group (people who are shielding, being shielded or on shield, whatever) with the over 70s. I'm sure I would not use it as an excuse for not attending a UC meeting though, having never had one to need an excuse for, or even knowing wtf one is!

 

[dazzer6666]

The population over 60 is about 16 million people. At the moment us over 60's can shop fairly safely due to social distancing. We won't be able to if it's business as usual for the rest of the population.

So one of the youngsters will have to do my shopping for a start, another take my rubbish out, another walk the dog and one of you will have to do my 30 miles a week running. F*** knows who we will trust with the allotment.

I think it should be based on fitness.

I’ll do it [emoji106]

 

[darkwolf666]

I doubt it, but I'm sure people will continue to confuse and conflate the shield group (people who are shielding, being shielded or on shield, whatever) with the over 70s. I'm sure I would not use it as an excuse for not attending a UC meeting though, having never had one to need an excuse for, or even knowing wtf one is!

UC = Universal Credit

 

[Triggaaar]

What if.... just the over 60s and people who live in same household stay on lockdown and everyone else are released ?! Herd immunity could be achieved reasonably quickly but would the NHS still be overwhelmed? Food for thought or a stupid idea?

Your data doesn't show whether the under 60s who had the virus survived without hospital treatment, or if they needed saving. If it's the former, then there's something to discuss. If it's the latter, then presumably the NHS would be overwhelmed.

 

[GT49er]

UC = Universal Credit

Oh, I see.

Not a problem then - the government has already managed to provide supermarkets with details of the 1.5 million people shielding so that they can be offered free weekly delivery priority slots, so doubtless it can/will have provided the same information to the UC people so that they can check and verify who is shielding and proceed appropriately.