Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[crodonilson]

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned more in the press but the Government extended the legislation for councils to extend lockdown until 17th July this year, which gives you an idea on when many of the things we currently miss might begin to reopen if no major new variants are found.

UK Government quietly extends English lockdown

 

[The Wizard]

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned more in the press but the Government extended the legislation for councils to extend lockdown until 17th July this year, which gives you an idea on when many of the things we currently miss might begin to reopen if no major new variants are found.

UK Government quietly extends English lockdown

I mean, it doesn’t mean anything like that at all, you’ve just assumed that’s what it means, legislation is probably extended in certain time frames (ie’ 3 months or 6 months) and so this entirely makes sense, in the case of restrictions being needed again or if localised areas experience outbreaks, they can be targeted without need for red tape.

How you get by on the daily being so negative I will never know, I’m beginning to wonder if it’s trolling or if you are a daily mail journalist.

In real, factual news, Boris this morning said things are coming down well and that mid February will be the first point of which changes can be considered, presumably once we’ve started to see results from vaccinations.

 

[Mellotron]

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned more in the press but the Government extended the legislation for councils to extend lockdown until 17th July this year, which gives you an idea on when many of the things we currently miss might begin to reopen if no major new variants are found.

UK Government quietly extends English lockdown

Doesn’t necessarily mean that at all. It’s all going to be based on vaccinations and subsequent hospitalisations and spread of virus.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Interested on views on this. If the Gov introduce mandatory quarantine in hotels as widely reported what happens to Champ League football? I would have thought that if they granted an exception they'd be up for discrimination pretty sharpish, particularly as (some) footballers haven't exactly been shining examples of conformance.

Edit: Yes, I am coming home Friday and No, I don't want to spend 10+ days in Travelodge Horley

Nothing like over kill

Airlines/Aviation have been calling for strict testing (before or on arrival) like most countries, yet we’ve decided to go the way of a handful of countries.

It appears the new policy is zero covid or lock the country up in case of a new mutation, which happens all the time.

 

[The Wizard]

Nothing like over kill

Airlines/Aviation have been calling for strict testing (before or on arrival) like most countries, yet we’ve decided to go the way of a handful of countries.

It appears the new policy is zero covid or lock the country up in case of a new mutation, which happens all the time.

Shutting the gate after the horse has bolted springs to mind, if the government were going to do that and isolate us from the rest of the world NZ style they should have done it back in March or April, now it’s utterly pointless. It’s a reactionary idea by people in charge who fear mutated viruses, like every single virus does.

TwatCock said the other day they fear ‘the mutations that are out there that haven’t been discovered’

 

[Billy the Fish]

It's your own fault if you are old and fat, apparently.

[tweet]1353624873659199488[/tweet]

This is why we can't have a serious debate about anything anymore. They've identified a couple of root causes, how does that equate to blame?

Most people who end up on ventilators are old or obese. That's not being judgemental, it's just a fact.

 

[The Wizard]

Obesity is a problem in this country and one that has undoubtably made our death toll much, much higher, some people have problems with their weight out of their control, others like I admittedly used to be, are just lazy and eat rubbish, I’ve lost 2 stone since lockdown began as it made me realise the importance of looking after myself. It’s not easy but it’s totally worth the life sacrifices.

Government mistakes have undoubtably also caused deaths, doesn’t mean unhealthy lifestyles aren’t also to blame.

Also, HOW is Piers Morgan still doing this? Did they sweep him swanning off for Christmas in Antigua under the carpet? Guys a loudmouth hypocrite.

 

[e77]

I imagine although they aren't saying it publicly the government have a figure in mind for vaccine coverage or reduction in infections in the elderly or vulnerable. When they reach it restrictions will start to be eased.

Not sure there is much more to it than that.

 

[Mellotron]

I imagine although they aren't saying it publicly the government have a figure in mind for vaccine coverage or reduction in infections in the elderly or vulnerable. When they reach it restrictions will start to be eased.

Not sure there is much more to it than that.

Completely this. Everyone is obsessed with dates, it's all about metrics. Once they are met, easings will occur.

 

[crodonilson]

The relative importance of getting as much compliance and possibly further restrictions is demonstrated by extrapolating the R rate over the next weeks and months to see what it does to the cases. A lot has been speculated on around Easter being a time possibly schools could go back or for the most optimisic maybe other restrictions start to be lifted. Taking approx ave daily cases as 45,000 currently and an R rate around 0.9 we would get to approx 15,500 cases daily by Easter, this is about the amount of daily cases we had at the end of the November lockdown and we can all see how even a gradual easing just led to an explosion of cases. I doubt at those sort of levels much if any restrictions would be lifted.

However if we got the R rate down to 0.8 daily cases would be down to around 4,800. We've not seen cases this low since the end of September (although even at these cases numbers Sage recommended a circuit breaker 3 week lockdown). With upwards of 30 million potentially vaccinated by then at current rates this could be a tolerable enough number to begin tentatively easing some lockdown measures. Put another way if the R rate remained at 0.9 it would take until the end of June, another two and a half months to get cases under 5,000 from where they are now.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Obesity is a problem in this country and one that has undoubtably made our death toll much, much higher, some people have problems with their weight out of their control, others like I admittedly used to be, are just lazy and eat rubbish, I’ve lost 2 stone since lockdown began as it made me realise the importance of looking after myself. It’s not easy but it’s totally worth the life sacrifices.

Government mistakes have undoubtably also caused deaths, doesn’t mean unhealthy lifestyles aren’t also to blame.

Also, HOW is Piers Morgan still doing this? Did they sweep him swanning off for Christmas in Antigua under the carpet? Guys a loudmouth hypocrite.

Who ever is at fault, we are an unhealthy nation.

Obesity is an issue.

 

[dazzer6666]

If that's what happened then that's daft and cheap point scoring from Morgan.

It's precisely what happens every time he has an MP on his programme. It's no wonder they don't bother.

 

[The Wizard]

The relative importance of getting as much compliance and possibly further restrictions is demonstrated by extrapolating the R rate over the next weeks and months to see what it does to the cases. A lot has been speculated on around Easter being a time possibly schools could go back or for the most optimisic maybe other restrictions start to be lifted. Taking approx ave daily cases as 45,000 currently and an R rate around 0.9 we would get to approx 15,500 cases daily by Easter, this is about the amount of daily cases we had at the end of the November lockdown and we can all see how even a gradual easing just led to an explosion of cases. I doubt at those sort of levels much if any restrictions would be lifted.

However if we got the R rate down to 0.8 daily cases would be down to around 4,800. We've not seen cases this low since the end of September (although even at these cases numbers Sage recommended a circuit breaker 3 week lockdown). With upwards of 30 million potentially vaccinated by then at current rates this could be a tolerable enough number to begin tentatively easing some lockdown measures. Put another way if the R rate remained at 0.9 it would take until the end of June, another two and a half months to get cases under 5,000 from where they are now.

Nearly 90% of deaths are people over 65/clinically vulnerable

So once they are vaccinated, What POSSIBLE reason could you have for continuing to lock people away and destroy the economy, when the death rate of COVID for people outside of the vulnerable groups is so low?

At that stage even if you had 5k infections per day, the death rate would be minuscule because the vaccinated age groups won’t be catching it.

By the way I would suggest you research R rate as I don’t think you quite understand it, I don’t mind people being scared for their own reasons, that’s your choice, but you are talking rubbish.

 

[dazzer6666]

Nearly 90% of deaths are people over 65/clinically vulnerable

So once they are vaccinated, What POSSIBLE reason could you have for continuing to lock people away and destroy the economy, when the death rate of COVID for people outside of the vulnerable groups is so low?

At that stage even if you had 5k infections per day, the death rate would be minuscule because the vaccinated age groups won’t be catching it.

By the way I would suggest you research R rate as I don’t think you quite understand it, I don’t mind people being scared for their own reasons, that’s your choice, but you are talking rubbish.

Absolutely this. Get them jabbed, give the hospitalisation and death rates a bit of time to drop to manageable levels and let the NHS get back under control and the data will show that there's actually no reason not to start removing some of the restrictions.

 

[beorhthelm]

The relative importance of getting as much compliance and possibly further restrictions is demonstrated by extrapolating the R rate over the next weeks and months to see what it does to the cases. A lot has been speculated on around Easter being a time possibly schools could go back or for the most optimisic maybe other restrictions start to be lifted. Taking approx ave daily cases as 45,000 currently and an R rate around 0.9 we would get to approx 15,500 cases daily by Easter, this is about the amount of daily cases we had at the end of the November lockdown and we can all see how even a gradual easing just led to an explosion of cases. I doubt at those sort of levels much if any restrictions would be lifted.

However if we got the R rate down to 0.8 daily cases would be down to around 4,800. We've not seen cases this low since the end of September (although even at these cases numbers Sage recommended a circuit breaker 3 week lockdown). With upwards of 30 million potentially vaccinated by then at current rates this could be a tolerable enough number to begin tentatively easing some lockdown measures. Put another way if the R rate remained at 0.9 it would take until the end of June, another two and a half months to get cases under 5,000 from where they are now.

good job we're already seeing R rate tracking down to 0.8.

 

[Pinkie Brown]

This is why we can't have a serious debate about anything anymore. They've identified a couple of root causes, how does that equate to blame?

Most people who end up on ventilators are old or obese. That's not being judgemental, it's just a fact.

If you're going to wheel out a minister to fat shame the masses, Coffey wasn't the smartest choice. If she ends up on a ventilator, the odds will be short.

She's 49!

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

If you're going to wheel out a minister to fat shame the masses, Coffey wasn't the smartest choice. If she ends up on a ventilator, the odds will be short.

She's 49!


View attachment 132945


View attachment 132946

Check the Belgium health minister.

Whilst I’m not calling for the health minister to be a ripped dreamboat, they should look after themselves.

 

[Pinkie Brown]

Check the Belgium health minister.

Whilst I’m not calling for the health minister to be a ripped dreamboat, they should look after themselves.

Out of curiosity I did. Oh my.

 

[crodonilson]

Nearly 90% of deaths are people over 65/clinically vulnerable

So once they are vaccinated, What POSSIBLE reason could you have for continuing to lock people away and destroy the economy, when the death rate of COVID for people outside of the vulnerable groups is so low?

At that stage even if you had 5k infections per day, the death rate would be minuscule because the vaccinated age groups won’t be catching it.

By the way I would suggest you research R rate as I don’t think you quite understand it, I don’t mind people being scared for their own reasons, that’s your choice, but you are talking rubbish.

The only reason the R rate is at 0.8/0.9 is because of lockdown so we will get down to that lower number because of lockdown, as soon as you lift measures that rate increases, the R rate climbs above 1 and within weeks 5,000 cases becomes 25,000. It's all about if the vaccine can stop or reduce transmission, if it does we sahould be able to tentatively ease measures without cases exponentially rising again. Even your 90% of vunerable people you quoted, that still leaves 10% vulnerable people and on current rates of 45,000 cases ave a day that would lead to some 150/200 covid deaths a day, and an awful lot more dealing with the effects, potentially life changing effects, of long covid.

 

[A1X]

Completely this. Everyone is obsessed with dates, it's all about metrics. Once they are met, easings will occur.

I think half the problem is everything previously was date-driven ("It'll be fine by June", "Christmas will be normal!") and people (and the Government messaging, to be fair) aren't out of that mindset.