Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Napper]

Agreed, the steps out of full lockdown will be very cautious and slow, and rightly so but I feel the tiered ststem will be beefed up so even when we come out of full national lockdown for many areas it will still in effect be a lockdown for many months to come. Schools will be the first to reopen but I find it unlikely that will happen right after Feb half term, closer to Easter in early April and then perhaps in the areas with lowest pressure on NHS non essential retail may be allowed to open sometime in May but I can't forsee hospitality reopening or the ability to visit friends and relatives privately until Summer.

suggest you stop hanging of the medias every word and maybe spend some more time on the good news thread.

Be better for your mental health

 

[crodonilson]

suggest you stop hanging of the medias every word and maybe spend some more time on the good news thread.

Be better for your mental health

I think coming to terms with the likely length of lockdown and continued restrictions for much of this year and into next winter now helps my mental health than thinking we can start getting back to normal by the middle of February when thsat plainly isn't going to happen, but there is good news many members of the EHO said it would take decades for normal to return, and I beleive with a succesful roll out of the vaccine through this year we can get back to nearly normal at some point in 2022.

 

[Napper]

I think coming to terms with the likely length of lockdown and continued restrictions for much of this year and into next winter now helps my mental health than thinking we can start getting back to normal by the middle of February when thsat plainly isn't going to happen, but there is good news many members of the EHO said it would take decades for normal to return, and I beleive with a succesful roll out of the vaccine through this year we can get back to nearly normal at some point in 2022.

ok , no problem

 

[dazzer6666]

I think coming to terms with the likely length of lockdown and continued restrictions for much of this year and into next winter now helps my mental health than thinking we can start getting back to normal by the middle of February when thsat plainly isn't going to happen, but there is good news many members of the EHO said it would take decades for normal to return, and I beleive with a succesful roll out of the vaccine through this year we can get back to nearly normal at some point in 2022.

I think it’ll be better than that. With the vast majority of the vulnerable largely ‘covid-proof’ by the end of Feb, the NHS will be in recovery by then - will take a while though. Schools open progressively after half term, and assuming infection rates and serious illness in particular starts to plummet (as it will with successful vacc rollout) then by end March we’ll be reducing tiers. If the vaccine rollout is going to be ramped up as planned, the drop through the tiers may be accelerated quite quickly.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I think coming to terms with the likely length of lockdown and continued restrictions for much of this year and into next winter now helps my mental health than thinking we can start getting back to normal by the middle of February when thsat plainly isn't going to happen, but there is good news many members of the EHO said it would take decades for normal to return, and I beleive with a succesful roll out of the vaccine through this year we can get back to nearly normal at some point in 2022.

I think you might have to be on your own with this one. If, as is likely (unless the vaccine fails altogether), the coronavirus is no more dangerous and probably less dangerous than flu before next winter, then you will struggle to persuade other people to remain hiding away in their bunkers. Obviously you can continue taking your own actions as you see fit, but an increase in death rate from 600k per year to 610k per year is not going to convince a government to try and continue lockdown. (Or if they try, they won't succeed.)

I can't forsee hospitality reopening or the ability to visit friends and relatives privately until Summer.

What is the actual harm to the country or to individuals if people who have been vaccinated against coronavirus meet in each others' houses?

 

[crodonilson]

I think you might have to be on your own with this one. If, as is likely (unless the vaccine fails altogether), the coronavirus is no more dangerous and probably less dangerous than flu before next winter, then you will struggle to persuade other people to remain hiding away in their bunkers. Obviously you can continue taking your own actions as you see fit, but an increase in death rate from 600k per year to 610k per year is not going to convince a government to try and continue lockdown. (Or if they try, they won't succeed.)

What is the actual harm to the country or to individuals if people who have been vaccinated against coronavirus meet in each others' houses?

Chris Whitty has already said that there will be a need for restrictions again next winter, the virus is well on the wat o vaccine escape and as it mutates the vaccines are likely to become less effective and like the flu jab will need to be tweaked over time. It may be if they stay effective and annual deaths are in the low thousands normal life returns but many disciplines such as social distancing and wearing of masks in public spaces partucularly in winter are likely to become ingrained into society.

The harm to inviduals vaccinated is likely to be fairly low but its not really fair to allow those who hsave been vaccinated to have different rules to the rest, all that would lead to is more non compliance amongst those not yet vaccinated, and the virus loves a crowd. We must in the short and medium term do everything we can to cut social contact and not allow the virus to thrive and transmit and possibly further mutate. Thats why we all need to stay at home unless absolutely necessary for the forseeable future.

 

[clapham_gull]

be tiered though. Places like sussex where hospitals are not under pressure should be ok. Have to remember all hospitals are under pressure in winter. The nightingales are not open so think we should be ok.

The media are on a shock campaign remember.

I've just spoken to a hospital in Sussex where they are under pressure because of Covid. Who to believe ?

 

[crodonilson]

I think it’ll be better than that. With the vast majority of the vulnerable largely ‘covid-proof’ by the end of Feb, the NHS will be in recovery by then - will take a while though. Schools open progressively after half term, and assuming infection rates and serious illness in particular starts to plummet (as it will with successful vacc rollout) then by end March we’ll be reducing tiers. If the vaccine rollout is going to be ramped up as planned, the drop through the tiers may be accelerated quite quickly.

I hope your optimism is correct but given this new strain is far more transmissible particularly amongst children I fear as soon as schools reopen unless this mass tesating works we will have another explosion in cases and it is already likely that thew best this lockdown will do between now and mif Feb is to hold the R number around 1 or slightly below so we will still porbsably be looking at over 50k cases per day. Given there will still be mass vulnerability and we are still not certain how much effacy one jab gives people from becoming seriously ill I doubt things will change much until well into April. The key factor I think in coming out of lockdown will be the pressure on the NHS and given there is a lag between cases, hospitalisations and death it will be some 4-6 weeks minimum after the high priority have been immunised before we see some noticable benefits.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Chris Whitty has already said that there will be a need for restrictions again next winter, the virus is well on the wat o vaccine escape and as it mutates the vaccines are likely to become less effective and like the flu jab will need to be tweaked over time. It may be if they stay effective and annual deaths are in the low thousands normal life returns but many disciplines such as social distancing and wearing of masks in public spaces partucularly in winter are likely to become ingrained into society.

The harm to inviduals vaccinated is likely to be fairly low but its not really fair to allow those who hsave been vaccinated to have different rules to the rest, all that would lead to is more non compliance amongst those not yet vaccinated, and the virus loves a crowd. We must in the short and medium term do everything we can to cut social contact and not allow the virus to thrive and transmit and possibly further mutate. Thats why we all need to stay at home unless absolutely necessary for the forseeable future.

I'm not sure you fully understand what "social distancing" entails. It's not just a matter of standing in the road while someone walks by. "Social distancing" means that my mother can never again go to a coffee morning, or to her whist club, or visit friends, or do anything that involves meeting people.

Wearing of masks is likely to have the same effect as over-enthusiastic hand washing. It reduces your resistance because your body isn't dealing with so many germs. I have found on cruise ships that when norovirus strikes, it's the people who aim to be antiseptically clean at all times that disproportionately suffer.

I really don't like the idea that other people, particularly the 600,000 people for whom this year is their last, should sit at home and have another wretched year because "it isn't fair". People who have not been vaccinated from choice can take their chances. People who have not been vaccinated because the disease does them little harm, can take their chances. People who cannot for some reason have the vaccine can stay at home and shield until the majority have been vaccinated, but that's an unfortunate consequence of their own health and not a valid reason for making other people suffer like they do.

 

[crodonilson]

I'm not sure you fully understand what "social distancing" entails. It's not just a matter of standing in the road while someone walks by. "Social distancing" means that my mother can never again go to a coffee morning, or to her whist club, or visit friends, or do anything that involves meeting people.

Wearing of masks is likely to have the same effect as over-enthusiastic hand washing. It reduces your resistance because your body isn't dealing with so many germs. I have found on cruise ships that when norovirus strikes, it's the people who aim to be antiseptically clean at all times that disproportionately suffer.

I really don't like the idea that other people, particularly the 600,000 people for whom this year is their last, should sit at home and have another wretched year because "it isn't fair". People who have not been vaccinated from choice can take their chances. People who have not been vaccinated because the disease does them little harm, can take their chances. People who cannot for some reason have the vaccine can stay at home and shield until the majority have been vaccinated, but that's an unfortunate consequence of their own health and not a valid reason for making other people suffer like they do.

Absolute hogwash.

Social distancing means trying to avoid as much contsct as is possible and to maintain a reaosnable distance, much of those events will most likely be able to go ahead but with reasonable precautions of limiting the distance where possible, wearing face masks, regular hand wasahing. It may mean limits on capacities of events but if it keeps people safe and it moves us further towards protecting our NHS and lives it is a price worth paying.

Face masks are proven to help stop the spread of the virus, thats what they are there to do and with an abundance of caution I expect the government will make face masks mandatory at all indoor public events for a while yet and possibly in some setting permanently. Again this is a small price to pay for helping to stop transmission of this and other viruses which msy follow or like flu, many countries in Asia have done this for a while now we're just a bit behind.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Absolute hogwash.

Social distancing means trying to avoid as much contsct as is possible and to maintain a reaosnable distance, much of those events will most likely be able to go ahead but with reasonable precautions of limiting the distance where possible, wearing face masks, regular hand wasahing. It may mean limits on capacities of events but if it keeps people safe and it moves us further towards protecting our NHS and lives it is a price worth paying.

Face masks are proven to help stop the spread of the virus, thats what they are there to do and with an abundance of caution I expect the government will make face masks mandatory at all indoor public events for a while yet and possibly in some setting permanently. Again this is a small price to pay for helping to stop transmission of this and other viruses which msy follow or like flu, many countries in Asia have done this for a while now we're just a bit behind.

Does "absolute hogwash" have the same meaning as "I respectfully disagree"?

I don't think that coffee mornings are a practical proposition if everyone has to sit two metres apart and wear a mask. If you can't talk or drink coffee, then there's not much point in a coffee morning.

Similarly, a whist drive when everyone has to sit more than arm's length from the table and you can't pass cards around? Not practical.

You are expecting too much. My mother is 87 years old. There is no way I can keep her safe. If you can think of a way that I can guarantee that she will live the next 10 or 20 years, then I will do it, but it simply isn't practical. I disagree with your idea that giving up so much social contact in old age is "a small price to pay". I think it's a big price to pay. And for what? It isn't so that she can live for ever, it's just so that she can die of something else. Which, to put it brutally, she will. As will we all.

I'm not denying that continuing to breathe is a wonderful thing. It is. But it isn't the only thing. Actually doing something in between breaths is wonderful too - we need a happy medium.

 

[peterward]

The old chestnut that the public sector is inefficient, and the private sector will magically accelerate the process. It wouldn't. It would complicate it, and slow it down. This is why even our current government, stuffed full of free market ideologues, are leaving it to the NHS to deliver the vaccines. It's also why we spend half as much money for a better healthcare service than they do in the US.

No old chestnuts at all, it wasn't in any way implying anyone is better or worse, that simply if vaccine could additionally be put into the hands of private physicians, many of those who were lower priority on the NHS and under the NHS system, may have to wait until year end or next year (according the vaccination date calculator and tier groups) may well opt to pay a small amount (for the private GP time) and bring forward their vaccination dates considerably, the end result being that everyone in the UK could be vaccinated, as a whole, earlier than middle of next year (which is what the vaccine calculator has for younger age groups). Ofc as dazzer6666 points out supply will probably be an issue for the near future.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Brisbane not messing about.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55582836

 

[crodonilson]

I'm not denying that continuing to breathe is a wonderful thing. It is. But it isn't the only thing. Actually doing something in between breaths is wonderful too - we need a happy medium.

I totally agree, but your happy medium seems to be going back to 2019 straight away whereas I believe for much of this year and possibly the next few winters we will need to keep some restrictions in place to keep covid under control for good. Good discipline in wearing masks in public spaces and trying where possible to keep a reasonable distance between yourself and others, plus regularly washing hands aren't going to destroy peoples lives in what they can and can't do but they will mean less people die and help keep covid under control (and have a positive impact on the number of people who contract and die from flu, and any other respiratory viruses which will inevitably come down the line).

I think given how badly this winter has gone, even with a vaccine given it will only be the 2nd winter we've dealt with covid the government will proceed with extreme caution and I can't blame them for that, we don't want to be back where we are now in 12 months time. So it may be that restrictions on certain events, the rule of 6 etc, and capacities of sporting events are slashed temporarily if transmission rises but hopefully with good discipline and a harsh lockdown for the coming months we can save ourselves from another lockdown later this year.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200811303055364?s=21

Some facts for those who seem to think hospitals are no more full than normal this time of year.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I totally agree, but your happy medium seems to be going back to 2019 straight away whereas I believe for much of this year and possibly the next few winters we will need to keep some restrictions in place to keep covid under control for good. Good discipline in wearing masks in public spaces and trying where possible to keep a reasonable distance between yourself and others, plus regularly washing hands aren't going to destroy peoples lives in what they can and can't do but they will mean less people die and help keep covid under control (and have a positive impact on the number of people who contract and die from flu, and any other respiratory viruses which will inevitably come down the line).

I think given how badly this winter has gone, even with a vaccine given it will only be the 2nd winter we've dealt with covid the government will proceed with extreme caution and I can't blame them for that, we don't want to be back where we are now in 12 months time. So it may be that restrictions on certain events, the rule of 6 etc, and capacities of sporting events are slashed temporarily if transmission rises but hopefully with good discipline and a harsh lockdown for the coming months we can save ourselves from another lockdown later this year.

What about football? Keep it behind closed doors for the next few winters?

 

[A1X]

[TWEET]1347337322229075968[/TWEET]

 

[Thunder Bolt]

be tiered though. Places like sussex where hospitals are not under pressure should be ok. Have to remember all hospitals are under pressure in winter. The nightingales are not open so think we should be ok.

The media are on a shock campaign remember.

A major incident was raised in Sussex yesterday because there wasn’t a free bed in the Sussex trust hospitals.
The Nightingales were never going to be open because there are no trained staff to use them. They were a PR exercise.
All civilian & military medically trained staff are working to capacity.

 

[beorhthelm]

A major incident was raised in Sussex yesterday because there wasn’t a free bed in the Sussex trust hospitals.
The Nightingales were never going to be open because there are no trained staff to use them. They were a PR exercise.
All civilian & military medically trained staff are working to capacity.

while they may have been PR, there were trained staff. thousands of bank nurses, ex-nurses and doctors, medical students an army were (still are) on standby. dont believe everything you read on twitter.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

while they may have been PR, there were trained staff. thousands of bank nurses, ex-nurses and doctors, medical students an army were (still are) on standby. dont believe everything you read on twitter.

Don't be dismissive.