Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Nobby]

Some interesting stats based on a simple analysis of the Govt data

Percentage of positive tests against total tests
Nov Wk1. 7.8%
Dec Wk1. 4.9%
Last 7 days. 13.0%

Hospital admissions as a % of cases
Nov Wk 1. 7.1%
Dec Wk 1. 9.0%
Last 7 days 11.3%

Deaths as a percentage of cases
Nov Wk1. 2.1%
Dec Wk1. 1.9%
Last 7 days. 4.3%

Not completely sure of the reasons - but presumably just showing that just under a half of positive cases are not being identified

So over 100,000 per day are actually positive but we’re only picking up around 60,000 ?

Track and Trace anyone?

Rates currently showing that we will be at around 2,200 deaths per day on around 26th January

 

[beorhthelm]

Not completely sure of the reasons - but presumably just showing that just under a half of positive cases are not being identified

or increase in infection. more likely as testing hasnt changed to suddenly detect a lot more positives.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Some interesting stats based on a simple analysis of the Govt data
Deaths as a percentage of cases
Nov Wk1. 2.1%
Dec Wk1. 1.9%
Last 7 days. 4.3%

4,738 deaths in the last week, 391,615 cases. That's 1.2%

I haven't checked any other figures.

 

[dazzer6666]

4,738 deaths in the last week, 391,615 cases. That's 1.2%

I haven't checked any other figures.

Whitty also talked yesterday about death rates being lower in relative terms vs infection and hospitalisation rates (due to advances in treatment as we learn from experience, more younger people being infected and recovering etc) and showed a graph that represented that......

 

[nicko31]

And 1 in 30 in London have the virus (really figure probably 1 in 15 or 20), things are out of control

Little surprise the Pfizer vaccine now being administered against WHO advice

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Ah well, better late than never.

[tweet]1346611159575760898[/tweet]

 

[Nobby]

4,738 deaths in the last week, 391,615 cases. That's 1.2%

I haven't checked any other figures.

Check it again then. They were behind on reporting the days tested
Your numbers are wrong.
What you doing on here anyway?

 

[dsr-burnley]

Check it again then. They were behind on reporting the days tested
Your numbers are wrong.
What you doing on here anyway?

What am I doing here? Talking to Brighton fans. Many of whom are sociable and friendly.

My numbers may be wrong, perhaps. I took then from the UK coronavirus site.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

What are the correct figures please?

 

[Nobby]

What am I doing here? Talking to Brighton fans. Many of whom are sociable and friendly.

My numbers may be wrong, perhaps. I took then from the UK coronavirus site.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

What are the correct figures please?

Sorry old boy, I’m having a bad day, and I’ve never liked Burnley much since a Mr Barton assaulted one of our players and got away with it. Also Sean Dyche is a cock [emoji3]

They are all the same figures it’s just how someone analyses and interprets them

I flagged up on here three weeks ago that hospital admissions as a % of positive cases was increasing.
And so has deaths as a % of positive cases.

I’ve taken my calculations from the point of view that Chris Witty says there is an average three week delay between a positive test and a death

So the 4.3% (as well as the rest of that trend) has been calculated by taking deaths this week, against positive tests from week commencing 9th December (and so on).

The trend is the trend, and the % of deaths to positive cases has dramatically increased.
I would guess that this is because many more people are dying without ever having a positive test.
The same with the hospital stat.

I can’t think of any other reason to be honest, other than that the virus variant is more deadly than it was before, but they would tell us that wouldn’t they.

To counter this - % of ventilators utilised vs hospital occupancy has actually reduced over time.
So those that get to have a hospital stay have a better chance of getting out

 

[Nobby]

Sorry old boy, I’m having a bad day, and I’ve never liked Burnley much since a Mr Barton assaulted one of our players and got away with it. Also Sean Dyche is a cock [emoji3]

They are all the same figures it’s just how someone analyses and interprets them

I flagged up on here three weeks ago that hospital admissions as a % of positive cases was increasing.
And so has deaths as a % of positive cases.

I’ve taken my calculations from the point of view that Chris Witty says there is an average three week delay between a positive test and a death

So the 4.3% (as well as the rest of that trend) has been calculated by taking deaths this week, against positive tests from week commencing 9th December (and so on).

The trend is the trend, and the % of deaths to positive cases has dramatically increased.
I would guess that this is because many more people are dying without ever having a positive test.
The same with the hospital stat.

I can’t think of any other reason to be honest, other than that the virus variant is more deadly than it was before, but they would tell us that wouldn’t they.

To counter this - % of ventilators utilised vs hospital occupancy has actually reduced over time.
So those that get to have a hospital stay have a better chance of getting out

Oh, and only time will tell if I am correct on the c2,200 deaths per day around 26th January

Hope I’m wrong......

 

[dsr-burnley]

Sorry old boy, I’m having a bad day, and I’ve never liked Burnley much since a Mr Barton assaulted one of our players and got away with it. Also Sean Dyche is a cock [emoji3]

They are all the same figures it’s just how someone analyses and interprets them

I flagged up on here three weeks ago that hospital admissions as a % of positive cases was increasing.
And so has deaths as a % of positive cases.

I’ve taken my calculations from the point of view that Chris Witty says there is an average three week delay between a positive test and a death

So the 4.3% (as well as the rest of that trend) has been calculated by taking deaths this week, against positive tests from week commencing 9th December (and so on).

The trend is the trend, and the % of deaths to positive cases has dramatically increased.
I would guess that this is because many more people are dying without ever having a positive test.
The same with the hospital stat.

I can’t think of any other reason to be honest, other than that the virus variant is more deadly than it was before, but they would tell us that wouldn’t they.

To counter this - % of ventilators utilised vs hospital occupancy has actually reduced over time.
So those that get to have a hospital stay have a better chance of getting out

Did Keral ever recover, or is he still injured?

I get 168,844 cases in w/c 9th December, so 4,738 deaths is 2.8% of that. What numbers have you used to get 4.3%?

 

[The Fits]

Say what you like about Owen Jones. But his latest video is succint and damning. Nothing we don't know, of course.

 

[peterward]

I know vaccine supply is going to be an issue. But to ramp up the vaccinated numbers..... In addition to allowing pharmacy's to administer the Oxford vaccine, if they could somehow get supply's into private physicians with strict price capping, the government could massively increase total vaccinated numbers quicker and save millions.

Yes everyone should get it free, but if you're currently not eligible until late 21 or 2022. Who wouldn't pay £20 odd quid to get it done sooner?

 

[Billy the Fish]

Say what you like about Owen Jones. But his latest video is succint and damning. Nothing we don't know, of course.

As you say not really anything new in there.

Someone posted an Owen Jones hatchet job on the Sikora thread the other day.

I guess it's his job, but Owen Jones must be keeping a log of all the mistakes made by his political opponents ready to put in a nice neat package to preach to the converted (from his perspective).

Just seen the bit about excess deaths, think those numbers are a bit iffy and he doesn't take into account that excess deaths were much lower for most of the summer

 

[dsr-burnley]

Say what you like about Owen Jones. But his latest video is succint and damning. Nothing we don't know, of course.

Damning, yes. But not succinct. 28 minutes isn't succinct.

He isn't correct in his conclusion that all the deaths are the fault of the government, and his implied conclusion at the beginning that the Chinese got it right isn't correct either.

I note two things he was particularly objectionable (word chosen on purpose) about were:

1. The government continued to consider the economy when saving lives was all it should have been about.
2. The government wasted money by getting PPE in too much of a hurry, they shouldn't have rushed the deals - they should have taken their time.

I have no idea how a fair and logical man could come to both those conclusions. You would need to be a biased fool with no other agenda than to knock the government regardless of facts, to do that.

 

[dazzer6666]

I know vaccine supply is going to be an issue. But to ramp up the vaccinated numbers..... In addition to allowing pharmacy's to administer the Oxford vaccine, if they could somehow get supply's into private physicians with strict price capping, the government could massively increase total vaccinated numbers quicker and save millions.

Yes everyone should get it free, but if you're currently not eligible until late 21 or 2022. Who wouldn't pay £20 odd quid to get it done sooner?

Because for the foreseeable future we’ll be using it as fast as it can fly out of the factories, so any single dose that goes to a private buyer is taken away from someone of higher priority........

 

[beorhthelm]

Say what you like about Owen Jones. But his latest video is succint and damning. Nothing we don't know, of course.

at 28 min i'll wager its not succinct.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

There is a lot of police out again

Would see a few police cars a week in first lockdown

See a few police cars when ever I venture out for a run this time.

 

[Poojah]

There is a lot of police out again

Would see a few police cars a week in first lockdown

See a few police cars when ever I venture out for a run this time.

It definitely feels different to the first lockdown though. I don’t know whether it was the novelty factor, fear or just a sense of doing the right thing but when people were told to stay at home, they stayed at home. I would go for a run on my lunch break and the only other people I would encounter would be other people doing the same.

It got to the point where it was easier to run in the middle of a 40mph road because there was more chance of encountering someone running the other way on the path than a vehicle. In the space of an hour you might see the odd ambulance or food delivery van - there were virtually no civilian vehicles on the road those first few weeks.

I’ve scarcely been out myself since this one began (more out of work responsibilities than compliance) but when I have road traffic certainly feels more ‘normal’ than it did first time around.

It just seems a little counterintuitive. The circumstances are clearly more dire, and yet the restrictions looser. I just hope it’s effective because looking at some of the faces (well, eyes) of the many NHS workers interviewed on the news tonight was absolutely heartbreaking. There’s going to be some serious PTSD kicking around amongst hospital workers when this is all over. I feel for them.

Perhaps a publicly donated fund to help get them whatever help it is they need and deserve would be more apt than a half hearted clap on one’s doorstep.

 

[clapham_gull]

Traffic definitely much much quieter up here already when I popped out earlier. I think the reality is sinking in.

Very bad news coming out tonight about London's hospitals and where they will be in 2 weeks. Just mentioned on Peston.