Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Stat Brother]

I had the misfortune of going to Asda in Hollingbury this morning and the place was packed. It was like Christmas, only without the cheer and and goodwill.

So it was like Christmas then?

 

[GJN1]

So it was like Christmas then?

Very good. Take the rest of the day off.

 

[GJN1]

When this all blows over and football starts again I really want a visiting team at the Amex to bring on the World Health Organisation as a substitute just so we can all shout 'WHO?'

 

[Seagull27]

Sorry, why didn't the news make this clear?

It was presented as "overwhelming disagreement" when this first broke...

And apparently 55 of them are students doing a doctorate in Mathematics.

[tweet]1238933743404036103[/tweet]

To be fair, mathematicians may be better placed to advise on the mass spread of a disease than a virologist. Probably not PhD students though.

 

[CHAPPERS]

What I don't understand is why people are saying we are 2 weeks behind Italy etc. Doesn't our numbers just indicate that as a country we responded to the initial impact better and minimized it?

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Look at social aspects too. Cross generational contact much more regular in Italy and Spain. Lots of families live together. There's plenty of reasons why saying we are two weeks behind Italy isn't THAT helpful.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

In all of this shitstorm, there are a few posts that cut through the gathering gloom and genuinely make me laugh - which let's face it, is a precious commodity at the moment.

Here's a good news story from the US - Profiteer buys up nearly 18,000 bottles of hand sanitizer, then finds himself lumbered with them

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

He really didn't.

Here is the transcript:

Philip Schofield: Is the delay essentially trying to spread this out so it doesn’t all happen at once and overwhelm the NHS, and that you can actually delay it into perhaps the summer when it’s a little bit quieter and the ordinary flu might have died down a wee bit, is that what you’re doing?

Boris Johnson: Well it’s a very, very important question, and that’s where a lot of the debate has been and one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do.

Be very careful with that quote, which keeps being misquoted, many people are so entrenched in their idea of Boris, that they will stick their fingers in their ears and go 'la la la'.

 

[peterward]

How worse?
A friend texted me to say that he had read that over a million people in the UK could die from this virus. On a sliding scale from 0 - 100, starting at Base Camp Zero. i.e calmness personified to Mountain Top of extreme panic, where does this sort of projection fit in?

I don't know about that 1 million figure and i'm not qualified to answer that. I have no idea.

I am personally calm, but feel the potential severity is if anything, understated.

It's not just deaths and final mortality though, it's economic shock, collapse of companies in areas such as retail/hospitality/travel, loss of jobs, and secondary medical mortality factors like cancer patients or others who are sick being deprived attention because of this.

The full damage can't be quantified purely in the number of people who die of covid19, can it?

Cure/vaccine is the only thing that bring it all swiftly to a close.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

why are people saying millions could die here with a population of 65 m and 3200 have died in china with a population of 1.5 b ? I don't get it

 

[Stat Brother]

why are people saying millions could die here with a population of 65 m and 3200 have died in china with a population of 1.5 b ? I don't get it

Because 'people' don't know shit.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

The impact on people's mental health especially if they have anxiety issues or depression is going to be as much of a challenge as the virus itself imo especially if having to self isolate for weeks or months

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

why are people saying millions could die here with a population of 65 m and 3200 have died in china with a population of 1.5 b ? I don't get it

Because China severely locked an area down with a population the size of London. Most of the cases happened there and they also severely controlled other areas. The problem they may face is that the virus may cause further difficulty along the line as there will be no general immunity to it. Our approach seems cruel but may save worse things happening later. China may need to re-introduce lockdowns several times in the near future which will simply continue kicking the can along the road.

I don't believe the mortality rate will be anything like the rate of the worst case scenario for what it's worth.

 

[Bozza]

why are people saying millions could die here with a population of 65 m and 3200 have died in china with a population of 1.5 b ? I don't get it

China have locked up 60 million people, possibly more, for nearly two months now. They are still locked up if a very draconian way.

You complain that telling 70+ year olds to stay at home is too much, China have done that to EVERYONE in the affected area that is, give or take, the same size as the UK. You won't be out walking your dog if you live in Wuhan. Some food will get dropped off every now and then for you.

If people don't interact with other people, then the infection rates, and deaths, will drop off as it can't spread. How do China move on though - they have 1.4bn people with no immunity to this disease - that's going to be very interesting to see.

What do you want? Everyone locked up at home indefinitely, or a less draconian approach with the risks it brings: every person coming into contact with a vulnerable person could be a silent assassin, you could have the virus, and be spreading it, but showing no signs.

FWIW: Like everyone else posting on here, I've got absolutely no idea what is the best way to deal with this.

 

[surrey jim]

China have locked up 60 million people, possibly more, for nearly two months now. They are still locked up if a very draconian way.

You complain that telling 70+ year olds to stay at home is too much, China have done that to EVERYONE in the affected area that is, give or take, the same size as the UK. You won't be out walking your dog if you live in Wuhan. Some food will get dropped off every now and then for you.

If people don't interact with other people, then the infection rates, and deaths, will drop off as it can't spread. How do China move on though - they have 1.4bn people with no immunity to this disease - that's going to be very interesting to see.

What do you want? Everyone locked up at home indefinitely, or a less draconian approach with the risks it brings: every person coming into contact with a vulnerable person could be a silent assassin, you could have the virus, and be spreading it, but showing no signs.

FWIW: Like everyone else posting on here, I've got absolutely no idea what is the best way to deal with this.

Go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over.

 

[Notters]

Things will get better... i am pretty calm about it all but even when i watch the media i feel like it's the end of the world. Chin up mate


I thought that this was interesting... a positive to the virus and lockdowns...

Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51691967

Thanks for this - I'm actually an air pollution expert (supposedly!) but hadn't seen this. There is a theory that the measures in China will save more lives than are lost, though who knows in the longer-term.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmc...s-from-pollution-and-climate-than-from-virus/

 

[Deleted member 22389]

The impact on people's mental health especially if they have anxiety issues or depression is going to be as much of a challenge as the virus itself imo especially if having to self isolate for weeks or months

My brother is 41 years old, has anxiety issues caused by existing health conditions. In January when the news first broke about this virus, he got himself in to an endless cycle of bad anxiety attacks, it was becoming unbearable. It was affecting my 83 year old mum, myself, which was then slowly being transferred to my wife. Over the last five weeks I have managed to put his anxiety back in the box. As my brother also has learning difficulties I have given him a plan of what to do and he has calm. For people on their own with no support, suffer from anxiety, depression it's an awful time.

 

[Notters]

My brother is 41 years old, has anxiety issues caused by existing health conditions. In January when the news first broke about this virus, he got himself in to an endless cycle of bad anxiety attacks, it was becoming unbearable. It was affecting my 83 year old mum, myself, which was then slowly being transferred to my wife. Over the last five weeks I have managed to put his anxiety back in the box. As my brother also has learning difficulties I have given him a plan of what to do and he has calm. For people on their own with no support, suffers from anxiety, depression it's an awful time.

Any tips welcome!

 

[Swansman]

why are people saying millions could die here with a population of 65 m and 3200 have died in china with a population of 1.5 b ? I don't get it

Another way of looking at it:

The Chinese province of Hubei got a population of 58 million, had 67 700 of cases and 2986 confirmed deaths, and they went into lockdown when they had only 400 (iirc) confirmed cases.

As for the deaths, Hubei brought in thousands of doctors and built hospitals with thousands of beds, yet they were overwhelmed and many people died or will die.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

My brother is 41 years old, has anxiety issues caused by existing health conditions. In January when the news first broke about this virus, he got himself in to an endless cycle of bad anxiety attacks, it was becoming unbearable. It was affecting my 83 year old mum, myself, which was then slowly being transferred to my wife. Over the last five weeks I have managed to put his anxiety back in the box. As my brother also has learning difficulties I have given him a plan of what to do and he has calm. For people on their own with no support, suffers from anxiety, depression it's an awful time.

Yep will be massive for anyone living alone with no support network

 

[pearl]

Remarkable that this country is doing it differently to every other country in the world, it seems. What a time to go out on a limb!

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