With future more mild variants, we (the public and governments) need to disregard the media tunnel vision for case numbers. It’s NOT the key metric, in the same way that hardly anyone has any interest in flu or common cold case numbers.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
With future more mild variants, we (the public and governments) need to disregard the media tunnel vision for case numbers. It’s NOT the key metric, in the same way that hardly anyone has any interest in flu or common cold case numbers.
Absolutely……
https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1479861429830303751?t=taoCvpqlkMiyWSYD0FGN8w&s=08
4) This means that if no-one died from COVID at all, theoretically close to 75 daily deaths could still be reported in England, purely down to the huge infection rates.
As it is, the seven day average is 160. So it’s possible almost half of the reported deaths are “incidental”.
5:03 PM
4) This means that if no-one died from COVID at all, theoretically close to 75 daily deaths could still be reported in England, purely down to the huge infection rates.
As it is, the seven day average is 160. So it’s possible almost half of the reported deaths are “incidental”.
5:03 PM
To me this is relative “good news”, but I don’t want to annoy @Lamie 
I get all of the other countries mentioned here - all are massive with the exception of the UK which was hard hit in the first two waves and has a high quality of data recording, but what the hell happened in Peru!? It’s half the size of the UK, and I’ve hardly seen them mentioned over the course of the past two years.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
It has been well known about Peru and their COVID problems. Some of the high figure may be caused by counting deaths 60 days after an infection unlike many other countries.
BBC News - Covid: Why has Peru been so badly hit?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53150808
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
To me this is relative “good news”, but I don’t want to annoy @Lamie
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Without wishing to stop this 'everything back to normal' love in, this time round we had a mild variation so it didn't need mega amounts of intervention (although people still moaned about having to wear masks on a train, but I digress). If the next one - and there will be a next one - is the same or even milder then happy days but if it is stronger then we might have to bring in more restrictions.
Alternatively people refusing to take the vaccine might have to start to do some of the heavy lifting for society.
Alternatively people refusing to take the vaccine might have to start to do some of the heavy lifting for society.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
It's nowhere near normal yet IMO, and in particular we're facing a really critical 2-3 weeks on admission numbers at least as the lag from the higher infection numbers unwinds (and that's assuming the infection peak has been reached/passed). From what I've read the expected evolution of such viruses tends towards progressively milder versions so there is some hope at least.
If and when we do reach the endemic stage, I'm looking forward to seeing what conclusions are drawn from what we did (and didn't do), what the real data is telling us (particularly in relation to incidence and severity of illness/death relative to vaccination status and the impact of this on the NHS, and to the 'real' numbers taking into account 'with' and because of' Covid - I'm pretty convinced comparisons between countries are bordering on meaningless at the moment on almost any level except excess deaths)
If we get past this peak/wave I can see all restrictions being binned off and the emphasis shifting completely to self-protection
Interesting read….DT extract
Full article https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/09/must-listen-south-african-scientists-omicron/
From symptoms to transmission - why we must listen to South African scientists on omicron
It’s time to heed the experts who provided the earliest data on omicron and are astonished at the UK’s reaction
By
Gordon Rayner,
ASSOCIATE EDITOR
9 January 2022 • 5:00am
south africa
‘There are several things we don’t know about omicron,” a sombre Professor Sir Chris Whitty told the nation in the week before Christmas, “but all the things we do know are bad.”
His comment puzzled many people at the time, given that scientists in South Africa, where omicron was first identified, had reported that it appeared to be less severe than the then-dominant delta variant of Covid. Surely that was good news?
Three weeks on, Sir Chris’s determination to dismiss the encouraging data coming from South Africa seems even more baffling. Instead of the post-Christmas lockdown that came to be regarded almost as an inevitability, Covid rules are now being eased. The NHS did not collapse, and the number of patients requiring ventilation remains less than a quarter of the peak a year ago.
Legitimate questions are now being asked about why Britain was so dismissive of the evidence from South Africa, and whether Government scientific advisers are once again using fear as a method of control.
One of those who is doing the asking is Angelique Coetzee, chairman of the South African Medical Association and the first doctor to raise the alarm over a possible new variant, which turned out to be omicron.
Dr Coetzee was among those who reported that omicron caused “very, very mild” symptoms compared with delta, and she hypothesised that it “could potentially be of great help to us” by replacing the more dangerous delta variant and helping the population to reach herd immunity at minimal cost to life. She says she was “astonished” at the panicked response to it in the UK.
“I don’t understand why it’s happening,” she told the Telegraph from her home in Pretoria. “It doesn’t make any sense to me. The fear that has been spread in Britain – why is that being done?
“South Africa has a younger population, but we should have seen far more disease than you because of the vaccination picture. We only have 44 per cent of people double-jabbed, and we only started the boosters last week.”
In the UK, 83 per cent of people are double-jabbed, and 61 per cent have had a booster.
“If you don’t know by now that the majority of people are going to have mild symptoms, then what other evidence are you waiting for?”
Full article https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/09/must-listen-south-african-scientists-omicron/
From symptoms to transmission - why we must listen to South African scientists on omicron
It’s time to heed the experts who provided the earliest data on omicron and are astonished at the UK’s reaction
By
Gordon Rayner,
ASSOCIATE EDITOR
9 January 2022 • 5:00am
south africa
‘There are several things we don’t know about omicron,” a sombre Professor Sir Chris Whitty told the nation in the week before Christmas, “but all the things we do know are bad.”
His comment puzzled many people at the time, given that scientists in South Africa, where omicron was first identified, had reported that it appeared to be less severe than the then-dominant delta variant of Covid. Surely that was good news?
Three weeks on, Sir Chris’s determination to dismiss the encouraging data coming from South Africa seems even more baffling. Instead of the post-Christmas lockdown that came to be regarded almost as an inevitability, Covid rules are now being eased. The NHS did not collapse, and the number of patients requiring ventilation remains less than a quarter of the peak a year ago.
Legitimate questions are now being asked about why Britain was so dismissive of the evidence from South Africa, and whether Government scientific advisers are once again using fear as a method of control.
One of those who is doing the asking is Angelique Coetzee, chairman of the South African Medical Association and the first doctor to raise the alarm over a possible new variant, which turned out to be omicron.
Dr Coetzee was among those who reported that omicron caused “very, very mild” symptoms compared with delta, and she hypothesised that it “could potentially be of great help to us” by replacing the more dangerous delta variant and helping the population to reach herd immunity at minimal cost to life. She says she was “astonished” at the panicked response to it in the UK.
“I don’t understand why it’s happening,” she told the Telegraph from her home in Pretoria. “It doesn’t make any sense to me. The fear that has been spread in Britain – why is that being done?
“South Africa has a younger population, but we should have seen far more disease than you because of the vaccination picture. We only have 44 per cent of people double-jabbed, and we only started the boosters last week.”
In the UK, 83 per cent of people are double-jabbed, and 61 per cent have had a booster.
“If you don’t know by now that the majority of people are going to have mild symptoms, then what other evidence are you waiting for?”
Definitely an element of control by fear, rather than explaining the details. Partly because Boris feared he would gets his fingers burned if he tried to impose any additional restrictions, I guess.
I’m prepared to cut Whitty some slack on this. It’s increasingly clear a booster jab is key to keeping the vulnerable out of hospital, and is good for the rest of us too for Omicron. Spooking people into getting boosted has clearly worked, and that’s no bad thing.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,217
There's an enormous problem with government by lies. The government - like all governments - is a bit mistrusted. But, when the government says this is necessary because it's dangerous and you might die if you don't do as we say - then, by and large, we do it.
But then if it appears that the government has been telling lies - and I think it has - then what happens next time there's an emergency? The government tells us this is dangerous, and we don't believe them.
Yeah, there are diminishing returns from scaring people. I'd much rather they treat us as reasonable adults, providing information about risks and uncertainties. Otherwise, we're heading (even further) down the road of ignorance, rumours and conspiracy theories.
Pretty much how that article sums it up at the end
The most gloomy predictions for the omicron wave now seem certain to have been wide of the mark. The problem for the Government is that if a more dangerous, vaccine-resistant variant arises, it could prove difficult to persuade an increasingly cynical public to do as they’re told.
My hunch was snobbery, an innate "they're South African, can we trust their science as much as something emanating from North America/UK/EU?".
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Definitely think that was part of it…..but whilst they aren’t as developed in some areas (vaccination for example) they were basically leading the world on genome sequencing for Covid. Shocking that more credence wasn’t given to what they were saying really.
From day one, every possible reason to disregard RSA evidence was put forward .... in themselves, all wild guesses, and all negative reasons to ignore. For example:
"They have a young demographic".
"Their population has been exposed to HIV (and latterly HIV vaccines) for 35 years".