Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

I am not sure experts modelling the worst case scenario to inform planning is quite the gotcha people are making out. It's up to the decision makers to ask questions about the data and take it from there.

I also think you might be overestimating the current government. They have on several occasions gone along asking for caution without legislation then panicking and bringing in legislation when things begin to look scary. My impression is the data behind it is fairly secondary.

trouble is the decision makers being who they are, will be easily bumped into overreation. they dont want the high end estimates, the people advising them who want to be ultra cautious do. without a vaccine a year ago we had peak 4500 hosptialisation a day, peak deaths 1200. now we're told we'll have 3x with vaccine in place. seeing the data the past year we've never been anywhere near the worst cases or even moderate scenarios. vaccines have really done their job.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I am not sure experts modelling the worst case scenario to inform planning is quite the gotcha people are making out. It's up to the decision makers to ask questions about the data and take it from there.

I also think you might be overestimating the current government. They have on several occasions gone along asking for caution without legislation then panicking and bringing in legislation when things begin to look scary. My impression is the data behind it is fairly secondary.

It is of course down to the Gov, they ask what they want , but he seems to suggest they (on govs instructions or not) say they don't include low risk modelling as would not require action, how can you know doing nothing isnt the right idea unless you look at it?

Then of course certain areas of the Media push the 6k deaths a day based on this, I believe it was based on Omicron being x times more transmissable and x times as deadly as Delta - where as a best case would be based on the SA Data - which they are just ignoring.

Its a mess and I doubt we are the only country doing this.

 

[crodonilson]

'Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), also warned that, based on their modelling, hospitalisations could peak between 3,000 and 10,000 a day and deaths at between 600 and 6,000 a day.'

In other words, they don't have a ****ing clue. 'between 600 and 6000' deaths and '3000 and 10000' hospitalisations is a laughably wide prediction. Predicting 6000 deaths a day when the majority of the country's elderly and vulnerable have been boostered is ridiculous scaremongering

Of course they don't know for sure, but even their best case models now show incredible stress on the NHS. We need to do out bit now and do as they ask and restrict our contacts to an absolute minimum and stay at home as much as possible.

 

[Weststander]

Of course they don't know for sure, but even their best case models now show incredible stress on the NHS. We need to do out bit now and do as they ask and restrict our contacts to an absolute minimum and stay at home as much as possible.

That’s been happening for weeks, behavioural changes. Cancelled holidays, meals, gatherings, Xmas parties, city centres day and night such as Brighton are far quieter than say two years ago, WFH. My elderly parents are taking great care.

Incrementally this has a huge positive effect in reducing the key metrics.

 

[BN41Albion]

Of course they don't know for sure, but even their best case models now show incredible stress on the NHS. We need to do out bit now and do as they ask and restrict our contacts to an absolute minimum and stay at home as much as possible.

I'll do what I'm allowed to, thanks, whilst LF testing daily and exercising caution.

For the same reasons others have mentioned above, I stopped listening to/reading the SAGE modelling a long time ago. It's laughable.

 

[crodonilson]

I'll do what I'm allowed to, thanks, whilst LF testing daily and exercising caution.

For the same reasons others have mentioned above, I stopped listening to/reading the SAGE modelling a long time ago. It's laughable.

If we all followed your cautiousness and sensible decisions I doubt SAGE would be advocating a level 1 lockdown.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Of course they don't know for sure, but even their best case models now show incredible stress on the NHS. We need to do out bit now and do as they ask and restrict our contacts to an absolute minimum and stay at home as much as possible.

Erm no…life is not all about just having a pulse ta very much …you stay at home and have zoom meetings with Polly and Giles, no problem by me ..but I’ll enjoy my time outside of home when I get the chance…I work hard enough to enjoy a bit of enjoyment with my spare time….I’d add also that for some it’s not quite as straight forward as being able to stay at home, depends on individual circumstances…space, children etc etc

 

[dsr-burnley]

Look on the bright side here. They're expecting 30 million people to get omicron because it spreads like wildfire, and they think all those 30m will come before the end of January and wreck the NHS. But if we all do the right thing and lock down and wait until it goes away, then by keeping the virus to 1m cases per month, in 30 months enough people might have had the virus that we can all come out again for a week or two before the next variant comes along.

Don't we all get it? If we all stop at home for the rest of our lives, we will not die of coronavirus. That is the aim. Every person who dies of something other than coronavirus, is a triumph for government policy. And old person who dies lonely and helpless, alone and with dementia, because she has not been allowed to see her friends, is a triumph for SAGE. Someone who dies of cancer, undiagnosed because they have been frightened away from going to see their doctor is another triumph for SAGE.

SAGE are rubbish tipsters, They came out with three scenarios last September for how many hospitalisations there would be in October. Likely scenario, 2,000-7,000 per day. Worst case scenario, right off the map but probably about 15,000 per day, but they said that was highly unlikely. Best case scenario, 1,200-2,000 cases per day, but that was considered so unlikely that it wasn't even mentioned. Actual answer, 1,021 maximum 7-day average. Their very best case, if all goes right, if all our numbers are at the lowest possible, it can't possibly be lower than this answer - WRONG by a sixth.

Based on past history, we need to take their best case scenario, the one they try to hide in the small print, and take the lowest number on it and reduce it by a sixth. That is the most likely right answer.

 

[Weststander]

Crikey, Le Tissier’s an anti vax conspiracy obsessive. Relentlessly posting, 0.55m followers. He really hates Fauci.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mattletiss7

 

[atomised]

Yes it is!!!!

If sustained, they are predicting as many would die in a MONTH as have during the rest of the ENTIRE ****ING PANDEMIC.

Can't even you see how flawed that is with data suggesting this is a less sever variant?

Steady there. None of that suits crodos agenda

 

[worthingseagull123]

Erm no…life is not all about just having a pulse ta very much …you stay at home and have zoom meetings with Polly and Giles, no problem by me ..but I’ll enjoy my time outside of home when I get the chance…I work hard enough to enjoy a bit of enjoyment with my spare time….I’d add also that for some it’s not quite as straight forward as being able to stay at home, depends on individual circumstances…space, children etc etc

Absolutely.

I am driving up to the Midlands the spend Christmas with my family.

I am not going to sit in my house alone over Christmas.

 

[beorhthelm]

looking at South Africa data, though risen we still dont see the great increase in hospitalisation or mortality anticipated. death rate with covid lower than most Europe dealing with Delta. obvs they must be very fit and healthy, alongside the lack of vaccines, the poverty and 13% living with HIV.

 

[Weststander]

Absolutely.

I am driving up to the Midlands the spend Christmas with my family.

I am not going to sit in my house alone over Christmas.

How do you intend breaking through Crodo’s Lockdown road block?

 

[Swansman]

Crikey, Le Tissier’s an anti vax conspiracy obsessive. Relentlessly posting, 0.55m followers. He really hates Fauci.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mattletiss7

View attachment 142906

Like other celebs who take that stance, he is probably mainly speaking to those already convinced.

SAGE, on the other hand, will make sure thousands of people are going to permanently question "scientific advise" and start to ask themselves what the agenda is.

 

[worthingseagull123]

How do you intend breaking through Crodo’s Lockdown road block?

Hard to say.

I thought being sanctimonious was a 2020 trend.

Sadly it continues.

 

[BN41Albion]

looking at South Africa data, though risen we still dont see the great increase in hospitalisation or mortality anticipated. death rate with covid lower than most Europe dealing with Delta. obvs they must be very fit and healthy, alongside the lack of vaccines, the poverty and 13% living with HIV.

Sshhhh, don't let that get in the way of the huge amount of scaremongering in the media currently!

 

[BN41Albion]

Absolutely.

I am driving up to the Midlands the spend Christmas with my family.

I am not going to sit in my house alone over Christmas.

Surely we are not going to go from everything being completely normal crowd size/capacity wise to a lockdown whereby we cant even travel to see our own family, even just after Christmas. Millions like myself will have plans to see other extended family just after Christmas. I'd be livid if we were told we shouldn't even travel to see our own family from the 27th or whatever date. At least last year everyone was already in tiered lockdowns with stadiums closed etc before the nationwide lockdown just after Christmas.
It would lead to a huge number of people ignoring the rules (likely myself included) and surely a lot more in the way of protest as we've seen in Belgium and the like.

Surely if anything it'll be a limit on capacities or closing of pubs, etc, which would still be desperately damaging on the hospitality/entertainment industry of course.

The most frustrating thing is, the way this government have flip flopped with wildly mixed messages throughout this whole pandemic, it would not surprise me one bit if that did end up being the case.

 

[vegster]

Sshhhh, don't let that get in the way of the huge amount of scaremongering in the media currently!

Sadly the government has been slow to react and give proper clarity on the Winter surge. Too little and too late as usual with mandatory mask wearing and even then giving exclusions for pubs and restaurants... Saying Christmas parties should go ahead but not supporting pubs and restaurants financially while the sensible people cancel their bookings ..and today after all the mixed messages and dithering....

Javid is set to say " It may well be too late to react to the Omicron variant now " this morning on the final Marr show.

Would be lovely if he has the guts to say " Sorry, we dropped the ball "

 

[sparkie]

How do you intend breaking through Crodo’s Lockdown road block?

Unless they are driving through Crodo's garden I don't think the roadblock will be an issue ?

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

Sadly the government has been slow to react and give proper clarity on the Winter surge. Too little and too late as usual with mandatory mask wearing and even then giving exclusions for pubs and restaurants... Saying Christmas parties should go ahead but not supporting pubs and restaurants financially while the sensible people cancel their bookings ..and today after all the mixed messages and dithering....

Javid is set to say " It may well be too late to react to the Omicron variant now " this morning on the final Marr show.

Would be lovely if he has the guts to say " Sorry, we dropped the ball "

Similar to this dithering from March 16th 2020, when the bleeding obvious was staring them in the face, the advice was to "avoid".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51917562

Like I said a few posts back, this has a real feeling of de ja vu about it...