Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo
Waxing chumps like candles since ‘75
- Oct 4, 2003
- 11,280
Just don’t film yourself holding a mock press conference and you’ll be ok.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Just don’t film yourself holding a mock press conference and you’ll be ok.
Just say you’re driving there to test your eyesight.
Politics For All
@PoliticsForAlI
Police cars revolving lightPolice cars revolving light | BREAKING: One option the government is considering is imposing a time limited circuit breaker, and then the release of restrictions is linked to how many of us get vaccinated
hahahahahaha
@PoliticsForAlI
Police cars revolving lightPolice cars revolving light | BREAKING: One option the government is considering is imposing a time limited circuit breaker, and then the release of restrictions is linked to how many of us get vaccinated
hahahahahaha
Lord Frost resigns over plan B
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,431
every cloud.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,205
Does this mean that the government is telling SAGE to produce a model that says 3,000 cases per day, and then saying "look, doom, gloom, SAGE are predicting 3,000 cases per day"? Good grief.
Is this genuine? Could it be a fake account?
dupe
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,431
what is utterly galling is the cry that we need to save the NHS if cases reach as high as 3000. last Jan they reached 4500 peak and around 4200 on 7 day average, we coped reasonably well with that?
Sturgeon, Johnson, Drakeford, Khan and Macron in fact, jockeying to make sure they look the Omicron early doors tough person? Paranoid, in case there’s a repeat of Jan 2021?
As well as the obvious benefit of saved lives, it would be funny if they all got it wrong. I’m thinking in terms of far lower numbers with severe illness, which might prove the case with this variant. Time will tell.
Would it? Or would you just be pleased that things turned out okay?
I think we could all laugh at Johnsons demise.....
As someone who spends a lot of time ‘modelling’ outcomes, albeit commercial / financial ones, I can safely say that they consist of mostly bollocks. The fact you have scientists doing it makes no difference.
There is always a pre-determined ‘ideal scenario’ and if the first or second attempt don’t produce such a result, you adjust the variables within conceivable margins until they do. Then, when the ideal scenario doesn’t prevail you blame one or two unforeseeable variances in the parameters as the reason for the discrepancy. Ad infinitum.
If the government tells Sage “guys, we need to let the general public how bad it could be” and then they crunch the numbers and it’s not that bad then 100% it’s back to the drawing board with half a percent or so added to the fatality rate until the scenario matches with the narrative. I think we’ve seen quite enough evidence of this in the past 18 months or so.
Caveat: I do genuinely understand why the government might wish to do this with vaguely good intentions, but at the same time I wouldn’t take every scenario spewed out there as gospel. Now less so than ever.
Fat Boy Fat
New member
- Aug 21, 2020
- 1,077
When you say “we” are you a member of the medical profession who had to deal with the pressure of dealing with sick people on a daily basis in such large numbers to the point they were at times run ragged?
Forgetting all the cancer diagnoses delayed, tidal wave of mental health issues, livelihoods destroyed, kids denied part of a childhood and a real education, the abuse of kids kept out of school and away from the eyes of social workers.
Lockdowns come with a huge financial, health and emotional price.
They should only be pursued as a last resort.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
…and the problem here is that the more times we see this modelling as wide of the mark the less people will take notice of the important stuff…bit like the boy who cried wolf
macbeth
Dismembered
it's definitely a genuine account. and by no means am I calling these modellers the bad guys here, they're generally prone to predicting gloomy scenarios as they often deal in contingency plans.
But if I'm reading it right, that tweet sounds a lot like an admission that the government asked them to model a hypothetical worst case scenario and they did so, with no information on the probability of said scenario, and then the government then used this as the smoking gun when advocating for whatever rules they'd cooked up. policy based evidence as opposed to evidence based policy, if you like. which is ****ing disgraceful.
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We are taking two weeks here. Without adequate support it’s manageable, then everyone who wants a jab gets one, then you introduce vaccine passports. What other option is there? Do nothing and see what happens in hospitals to the underpaid over worked health service already on their knees? Yeah alright. How many cancer patients do well from that exactly?
Is it actually 2 weeks..... I dont know how anyone can possibly say that with any real confidence.