Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[crodonilson]

Bleak reading

https://twitter.com/lrossouw/status/1470861903354335234?t=uOsXG2aqsHwwjy8hItp_yQ&s=19

Sent from my SM-G986B using Tapatalk

More grim reading here...

Covid cases could hit 1m per DAY by end of the month

Prof Christina Pagel thinks the new variant is every bit as lethal as delta, and we were heading for a very bad January with Delta around. Also senior member of stage calling on the government to introduce legislation to enforce limits on people's social contacts.

 

[Weststander]

More grim reading here...

Covid cases could hit 1m per DAY by end of the month

Prof Christina Pagel thinks the new variant is every bit as lethal as delta, and we were heading for a very bad January with Delta around. Also senior member of stage calling on the government to introduce legislation to enforce limits on people's social contacts.

Far left Pagel and Michie, 21 months of always the very worst predictions for the UK especially England.

 

[atomised]

More grim reading here...

Covid cases could hit 1m per DAY by end of the month

Prof Christina Pagel thinks the new variant is every bit as lethal as delta, and we were heading for a very bad January with Delta around. Also senior member of stage calling on the government to introduce legislation to enforce limits on people's social contacts.

So really what you're saying is that 2 jabs plus a booster makes no difference at all and we might as well not have bothered as we're all doomed anyway.

 

[crodonilson]

So really what you're saying is that 2 jabs plus a booster makes no difference at all and we might as well not have bothered as we're all doomed anyway.

Ps is the senior member of stage Andrew Lloyd Webber or Cam Mack

2 jabs and a booster will make a significant difference but many still have not got their booster and you only get significant protection around 2 weeks after so we won't see the wall of immunity we may need until mid January at the earliest if the government.targets are met, so on the short term to fend off this tidal wave of infections it appears we need other measures and mitigations to slow the spread down.

 

[Weststander]

2 jabs and a booster will make a significant difference but many still have not got their booster and you only get significant protection around 2 weeks after so we won't see the wall of immunity we may need until mid January at the earliest if the government.targets are met, so on the short term to fend off this tidal wave of infections it appears we need other measures and mitigations to slow the spread down.

On a huge positive, well over 21m of the most vulnerable / more at risk age groups are triple jabbed, growing by astonishing numbers every day. Making them far less likely to be severely ill or worse.

Now working on the far less vulnerable (to death or severe illness) age groups.

 

[nicko31]

Far left Pagel and Michie, 21 months of always the very worst predictions for the UK especially England.

Far left Pagel? She doesn't like the way Johnson has handled the pandemic but to say she is far left is wide of the mark

 

[dsr-burnley]

More grim reading here...

Covid cases could hit 1m per DAY by end of the month

Prof Christina Pagel thinks the new variant is every bit as lethal as delta, and we were heading for a very bad January with Delta around. Also senior member of stage calling on the government to introduce legislation to enforce limits on people's social contacts.

So let's have a close look at her figures.

We know that the first identified omicron cases were on 27th November. A week before that, when we can be fairly sure there were no omicron cases at all, the daily average confirmed cases was 43,000. That was based on a daily average of 938,000 tests. They generally reckon the true number of cases including untested cases would be double that. Let's say 100,000 to keep the numbers easy.

Today, there were 1.3 million tests that found 59,600 cases. Testing up by a third, positive tests up by a third. And yet Pagel and others are telling us that the delta variant is still in full swing and that there are 200,000 total omicron cases- 300,000 in all. So why aren't they finding them? If there are there times as many cases, then why hasn't the percentage of positives increased? If there are an extra 200,000 cases to be found, why have they found only 16,000 of them?

 

[worthingseagull123]

More grim reading here...

Covid cases could hit 1m per DAY by end of the month

Prof Christina Pagel thinks the new variant is every bit as lethal as delta, and we were heading for a very bad January with Delta around. Also senior member of stage calling on the government to introduce legislation to enforce limits on people's social contacts.

The government cannot enforce limits in peoples social contacts. Enough people will say enough is enough and wont pay any attention.

If people are THAT concerned, by all means shut yourself off from the outside world.

 

[Weststander]

Far left Pagel? She doesn't like the way Johnson has handled the pandemic but to say she is far left is wide of the mark

Michie is a communist, any comment on that? A dead cert to criticise and not to stick strictly to the science.

Pagel’s a Labour devotee and long time twitterer on party politics. Her role at UCL is “ We are a team of researchers dedicated to applying operational research, data analysis and mathematical modelling to problems in health care. CORU sits within the UCL Department of Mathematics”

So when she’s wheeled out to talk about Covid the disease and our response, the broadcaster always states first “Pagel’s here in a personal capacity, not representing UCL”. Given a personal platform of always talking this country down. Why?

Both predict the very worst, very inaccurately about our vaccine programme, they rarely mention a UK positive eg the vaccine programme or swerving the Delta pandemic on the continent this autumn, they insisted on lockdown carrying on into summer 2021.

Independent Sage have some lesser known contributors who are balanced, but being balanced they don’t grab the attention of broadcasters.

For Michie and Pagel it’s political, trying to settle personal scores.

 

[beorhthelm]

More grim reading here...

Covid cases could hit 1m per DAY by end of the month

Prof Christina Pagel thinks the new variant is every bit as lethal as delta, and we were heading for a very bad January with Delta around. Also senior member of stage calling on the government to introduce legislation to enforce limits on people's social contacts.

on the positve side that'll mean just everyone's had it by mid Feb, get immunity and we can get about our own business.

data is being massively borked by reporting models and estimates. dont know why some media wish to promote this, nor why people follow it. abroad they are barely registering omicron, an odd UK obsession.

 

[Weststander]

on the positve side that'll mean just everyone's had it by mid Feb, get immunity and we can get about our own business.

data is being massively borked by reporting models and estimates. dont know why some media wish to promote this, nor why people follow it. abroad they are barely registering omicron, an odd UK obsession.

Sky News changed UK ‘news’ reporting forever.

Every other news outlet joined in with their hyperbole methods, sink or swim.

If it wasn’t Covid, it would be other stampedes.

Balanced journalism - I only find that on R4 these days, although the Telegraph can be a source of factual calm.

 

[dazzer6666]

More grim reading here...

Covid cases could hit 1m per DAY by end of the month

Prof Christina Pagel thinks the new variant is every bit as lethal as delta, and we were heading for a very bad January with Delta around. Also senior member of stage calling on the government to introduce legislation to enforce limits on people's social contacts.

‘Could’….with nothing in the article indicating how……it’s a simple extrapolation. The modelling has been generally awful from the start, I don’t expect this worst case scenario ‘guess’ to be any different.

Worse, the Guardian report this as an ‘expectation’ within a couple of paragraphs. No wonder some people are paranoid.

Britain’s wave of Omicron infections could reach 1m a day by the end of December, the government’s most senior public health adviser has warned amid growing calls to limit Christmas gatherings.

Dr Susan Hopkins told MPs on Tuesday the Omicron Covid variant was initially doubling every two to three days in the UK but the pace appeared to have speeded up, driving a surge of disease that risked putting “significant” pressure on the NHS.

While confirmed cases of the variant are being tracked through genomic testing, the number of Omicron infections across the country is estimated to be far higher – at an estimated 200,000 daily infections on Monday – due to a time lag and because many cases are never picked up by the testing programme.


Hopkins said with so many people expected to contract the virus over the coming weeks, the NHS would come under significant pressure if only a fraction became ill enough to need hospital care.

 

[Billy the Fish]

The point is that people are not " Losing their shit " and turning the fear up to 11, this is serious and we don't know how its going to play out yet , its no laughing matter.

We do know how it's going to play out because South Africa are a number of weeks ahead of us and in a much worse position with vaccinations.

Yet people are being fed a narrative of fear, you've got modellers making ridiculous claims about 1M infections a day, government ministers misquoting figures and the media lapping it up because fear sells.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Does anyone think it's actually physically possible to reach the kind of infection numbers they're talking about?

The models never know when to predict the peak, I suspect they don't know how to factor in social dynamics. What we've seen before is covid runs out of people to infect and then falls sharply. 1M infections a day is cloud cuckoo land!

 

[beorhthelm]

data watch, there is now an Omicron overview.

cases increased 13th: +1534
cases increased 14th: + 519
hospitalisation: unchanged.

 

[dazzer6666]

Does anyone think it's actually physically possible to reach the kind of infection numbers they're talking about?

The models never know when to predict the peak, I suspect they don't know how to factor in social dynamics. What we've seen before is covid runs out of people to infect and then falls sharply. 1M infections a day is cloud cuckoo land!

...and taking that logic, the day after we get 1m, there will be 3m............(if the R is 2 as 'forecast')

 

[Billy the Fish]

Brass eye predicted it.

This is the world we live in! I'm just waiting for the word "infections " to start flashing.

[YT]9mnVWJpMhuE[/YT]

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

...and taking that logic, the day after we get 1m, there will be 3m............(if the R is 2 as 'forecast')

If that rate is correct (it might be, it might not be) the decision to unlock fully in July really looks like the best one now for extra immunity

 

[Weststander]

Does anyone think it's actually physically possible to reach the kind of infection numbers they're talking about?

The models never know when to predict the peak, I suspect they don't know how to factor in social dynamics. What we've seen before is covid runs out of people to infect and then falls sharply. 1M infections a day is cloud cuckoo land!

1 in 68 per day seems feasible to me, just now. More people I know have had positive PCR tests today, added to those who’ve very recently acquired it like me.

 

[Kazenga <3]

We (obviously very unwisely) went ahead with our office Christmas meal last Thursday. All negative on lateral flow on the Thursday morning. By Sunday, 10 of 12 had tested positive. Myself and 7 others were all still negative on lateral flow but positive on PCR. Anyway shows how incredibly transmissible Omicron is.

As for the effects, despite feeling a bit peculiar and out of body + having the odd strange muscular palpitation, nobody has thus far felt any rougher than having a bad cold. Age range of mid 20s to mid 40s and all double jabbed for clarity. One person re-infected having had Delta in the summer.

Early days I know, but if this kind of reaction to Omicron is going to be consistent across the wider population then this is clearly going to be very positive. Fingers crossed the data will bear this out in a month or so's time, but hopefully this could be the end to some of the mass hysteria and we can have normality back and just live with it. Sadly too many on here seem to enjoy revelling in the latest potential misery and scaremongering so I've not bothered engaging with the COVID threads, but thought worth sharing if it helps temper some of that.