Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Kinky Gerbil]

Last week, Johnson said the following:

“….a wave of Omicron through a population that was not boosted would risk a level of hospitalisation that could overwhelm our NHS and lead sadly to very many deaths….”

But the data from South Africa is astonishing. We’ve been told to wait for the Omicron deaths to mount up but instead, as the Omi-infection rates have increased, it seems the death rate has decreased. There were just 21 deaths yesterday. When will all these promised deaths come? Why is the death rate dropping as the infection rate rises? Don’t take my word for it, look at the data yourselves:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

The truth Johnson is hiding is that the booster roll out has been too slow and Delta is overwhelming the population. Delta is out of control and more dangerous than ever as double jabs efficacy expires. Johnson is gaslighting. Delta is the real killer and if you are only double jabbed, you are in a very weak position.

Get your booster ASAP. Stop Delta then help stop Johnson (and the FIA for that matter).

The Evidence at the moment suggesting it’s milder is stacking up now

Could of course change.

There was a report on Denmark about a decent number in hospital - but a large percentage tested positive on or after admission whilst in for something else.

 

[worthingseagull123]

Nothing will stop the spread of omicron. Nothing at all. What the BMA are proposing is to slow it down. They are no doubt correct that if we have another severe lockdown, and make the next couple of years into a repeat of the last couple, then this January will be better than it would be otherwise.

But at what cost? Are they still working, as at least some of the authorities have been all along, on the basis that it doesn't matter how many people die as long as they don't have covid on their death certificate?

I think the govt realise that there are enough of us now who wont pay any attention if they bring in another lockdown.

It is a waste of time.

 

[Bodian]

I must be honest and say that I'm getting a bit confused by all the figures flying around.

Javid says that 20% of cases in England are Omicron https://www.independent.co.uk/news/covid-cases-omicron-testing-latest-b1974766.html. The latest figures for today are 1,576 omicron in 44,931 cases. That's nowhere near 20% - so what's he quoting?

Then he also says 200,000 omicron infections - how's that worked out? If 200,000 is extrapolated from the 1,576, then taking the 45k overall figure and extrapolating at the same level, it would mean over 5m infections today altogether.

I also notice the Guardian reports the death as 'from Omicorn' and 'with Omicron' in the same article https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/13/at-least-one-person-in-uk-has-died-with-omicron-says-boris-johnson

Had my booster today - very efficient up here. And queued alongside walk-ins without any noticeable extra delay or difficulty. Very impressed with the overall service - even got free parking!

 

[beorhthelm]

I must be honest and say that I'm getting a bit confused by all the figures flying around.

Javid says that 20% of cases in England are Omicron https://www.independent.co.uk/news/covid-cases-omicron-testing-latest-b1974766.html. The latest figures for today are 1,576 omicron in 44,931 cases. That's nowhere near 20% - so what's he quoting?

Then he also says 200,000 omicron infections - how's that worked out? If 200,000 is extrapolated from the 1,576, then taking the 45k overall figure and extrapolating at the same level, it would mean over 5m infections today altogether.

I also notice the Guardian reports the death as 'from Omicorn' and 'with Omicron' in the same article https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/13/at-least-one-person-in-uk-has-died-with-omicron-says-boris-johnson

Had my booster today - very efficient up here. And queued alongside walk-ins without any noticeable extra delay or difficulty. Very impressed with the overall service - even got free parking!

yes, noticed the same erratic numbers today. not sure who's sourcing the 200k omicron infections, i saw it along side "unreported infections" so suspect its a model not real world evidence based. its unfortunate that the first death worldwide from omicron should fall in the UK.

 

[Poojah]

Last week, Johnson said the following:

“….a wave of Omicron through a population that was not boosted would risk a level of hospitalisation that could overwhelm our NHS and lead sadly to very many deaths….”

But the data from South Africa is astonishing. We’ve been told to wait for the Omicron deaths to mount up but instead, as the Omi-infection rates have increased, it seems the death rate has decreased. There were just 21 deaths yesterday. When will all these promised deaths come? Why is the death rate dropping as the infection rate rises? Don’t take my word for it, look at the data yourselves:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

The truth Johnson is hiding is that the booster roll out has been too slow and Delta is overwhelming the population. Delta is out of control and more dangerous than ever as double jabs efficacy expires. Johnson is gaslighting. Delta is the real killer and if you are only double jabbed, you are in a very weak position.

Get your booster ASAP. Stop Delta then help stop Johnson (and the FIA for that matter).

I didn’t even want to take Worldometer’s word for it, so checked a couple of different places - the story all the same. That is quite remarkable really. In a country with a 25% vaccination rate.

I understand the reservations about getting overly excited by the potentially positive characteristics of omicron, but there does appear to be mounting data to suggest that this could be the saviour rather than the beast.

 

[Poojah]

yes, noticed the same erratic numbers today. not sure who's sourcing the 200k omicron infections, i saw it along side "unreported infections" so suspect its a model not real world evidence based. its unfortunate that the first death worldwide from omicron should fall in the UK.

It doesn’t quite make sense to me either. 200k cases a day but as it stands only 10 people in hospital WITH Omicron. Even allowing for the lag and it’s apparent massive transmissibility 200k daily cases suggests it’s been here for a good few weeks. The numbers, right now, don’t compute.

 

[Poojah]

Purely out of interest, I thought I’d check how other European countries, and the US, were reporting Omicron. Were they going mental, dominating the news?

They weren’t. It wasn’t the main story anywhere as far as I could see and those articles which did play things up a little more were largely relying on quotes from Johnson and Javid.

I wouldn’t want to play its seriousness down, but given the circumstances under which the government seemingly panicked, and the apparent panic elsewhere, I’m sceptical.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I didn’t even want to take Worldometer’s word for it, so checked a couple of different places - the story all the same. That is quite remarkable really. In a country with a 25% vaccination rate.

I understand the reservations about getting overly excited by the potentially positive characteristics of omicron, but there does appear to be mounting data to suggest that this could be the saviour rather than the beast.

Just 11 deaths reported from South Africa yesterday. A huge spike in deaths should be accompanying their huge spike in the infections; it’s just not currently. It might be my dodgy maths but South Africa appear to have just had their lowest 7 day death average since the pandemic began.

Let’s see what it looks like next week but it’s difficult to conclude that Omicron is more severe than Delta. The strain can clearly put someone in hospital though. Let’s see how those patients react and cross our fingers.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Looks like furlough is being discussed about being brought back

Won’t really help a jot

 

[vegster]

Looks like furlough is being discussed about being brought back

Won’t really help a jot

What will help is cancelling Christmas parties,not being miserable but getting pissed in enclosed large groups is going to fuel a massive spike in infections in the next couple of weeks.

 

[Poojah]

It doesn’t quite make sense to me either. 200k cases a day but as it stands only 10 people in hospital WITH Omicron. Even allowing for the lag and it’s apparent massive transmissibility 200k daily cases suggests it’s been here for a good few weeks. The numbers, right now, don’t compute.

I have to say, having posted this last night I was slightly alarmed to wake up to see headlines on Sky News suggesting that there are now 250 people in hospital with Onicron. That’s quite a surge.

But no, there aren’t. It was just Raab making an absolute clusterfúck of the numbers - there are indeed 10. Only out by 2,500% though, so it was an easy mistake to make.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...ong-twice-on-morning-broadcast-round-12495367

 

[Napper]

Purely out of interest, I thought I’d check how other European countries, and the US, were reporting Omicron. Were they going mental, dominating the news?

They weren’t. It wasn’t the main story anywhere as far as I could see and those articles which did play things up a little more were largely relying on quotes from Johnson and Javid.

I wouldn’t want to play its seriousness down, but given the circumstances under which the government seemingly panicked, and the apparent panic elsewhere, I’m sceptical.

alot of countries are baffled with our response to all this.

It's about pushing the boosters

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I have to say, having posted this last night I was slightly alarmed to wake up to see headlines on Sky News suggesting that there are now 250 people in hospital with Onicron. That’s quite a surge.

But no, there aren’t. It was just Raab making an absolute clusterfúck of the numbers - there are indeed 10. Only out by 2,500% though, so it was an easy mistake to make.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...ong-twice-on-morning-broadcast-round-12495367

I’m sure it was an accident… really sure.

Just a coincidence they have a vote today they are getting hammered on by own party.

 

[Bold Seagull]

It doesn’t quite make sense to me either. 200k cases a day but as it stands only 10 people in hospital WITH Omicron. Even allowing for the lag and it’s apparent massive transmissibility 200k daily cases suggests it’s been here for a good few weeks. The numbers, right now, don’t compute.

As I was suggesting, anecdotally a page before, it does feel to me at least that we must be around the 200k cases per day, because literally everyone I speak to, dog walkers, friends, kid's football parents etc. etc. either have it or are talking about a close acquaintance who has it. Kids football for example has gone from no cases, to several missing games each week this month. Feels to me that more people have got it at the moment than anytime I can remember - only as people say, without anything like the symptoms people were getting previously. Despite hearing about so many cases, I've not heard any of them say they actually got ill, or this person was really bad. So agree, the numbers right now don't compute because there doesn't seem to be anywhere near the same link between infection rate and severity of symptoms.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Purely out of interest, I thought I’d check how other European countries, and the US, were reporting Omicron. Were they going mental, dominating the news?

They weren’t. It wasn’t the main story anywhere as far as I could see and those articles which did play things up a little more were largely relying on quotes from Johnson and Javid.

I wouldn’t want to play its seriousness down, but given the circumstances under which the government seemingly panicked, and the apparent panic elsewhere, I’m sceptical.

You say that, but many European countries still have really strict restrictions in place, the Dutch are playing football matches behind closed doors as an example. Think the context for us is that we have pretty much gone back to normal, Omicron is a spanner in the works for us, but for countries still battling other, maybe more deadly variants, it's not the big news story as it is for us.

 

[Billy the Fish]

alot of countries are baffled with our response to all this.

It's about pushing the boosters

Absolutely no doubt about this.

I also suspect they're lining themselves up to take the credit when it turns out deaths and hospitalisations go down as Omicron takes over.

 

[Billy the Fish]

From the Guardian Live update page

At the Commons science committee in the UK, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, has given evidence about the impact of Omicron in South Africa.

She said Omicron was at least as transmissible as the Delta variant. She said it generally produced a mild disease.

It was different for people in hospital, she said. Most people in hospital were unvaccinated, she said. She told the MPs that they did not do genomic sequencing for most patients, so the hospital statistics did not differentiate between Delta patients and Omicron patients. But she said intensive care units were “not overwhelmed” with Covid cases.

In an article published in UK newspaper the Daily Mail today, Coetzee argues that the UK government is over-reacting. She says:

Yesterday there were only 11 Covid-related deaths in South Africa, far fewer than the 578 weekly average reported at Delta’s peak.

If Omicron really were such a deadly variant, we would expect the numbers to have shot up, yet that simply isn’t happening here.

This makes it all the more peculiar to see what’s happening in the UK. This huge over-reaction is scaring people unnecessarily, and if your government does decide go to for a hard lockdown in the new year, that could end up doing far more harm than good.

 

[Medwayseagull]

I have to say, having posted this last night I was slightly alarmed to wake up to see headlines on Sky News suggesting that there are now 250 people in hospital with Onicron. That’s quite a surge.

But no, there aren’t. It was just Raab making an absolute clusterfúck of the numbers - there are indeed 10. Only out by 2,500% though, so it was an easy mistake to make.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...ong-twice-on-morning-broadcast-round-12495367

He multiplied his IQ by the same percentage to make it look respectable.

 

[Hugo Rune]

From the Guardian Live update page

We’re clearly being gaslit on Omicron by the government and media.

This is what MPs have been told about Omicron from Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association:

"But the majority of patients, within five days after we have seen them, are healthy.
"We haven't so far encountered, on primary healthcare level, any long Covid symptoms… we haven't prescribed oxygen, even for the people who have been admitted."

However, on this occasion, the ends justify the means because the government are doing it to push boosters.

We are probably getting 40k+ Delta infections per day. This is the health crisis we have to deal with right now because AZ double jabs have expired. If people get a booster because of Omicron then great, I got mine yesterday to avoid Delta and the sort of illness I’ve seen in a number of AZ jabbed friend in their 40’s. The booster programme was too late.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

We’re clearly being gaslit on Omicron by the government and media.

This is what MPs have been told about Omicron from Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association:

"But the majority of patients, within five days after we have seen them, are healthy.
"We haven't so far encountered, on primary healthcare level, any long Covid symptoms… we haven't prescribed oxygen, even for the people who have been admitted."

However, on this occasion, the ends justify the means because the government are doing it to push boosters.

We are probably getting 40k+ Delta infections per day. This is the health crisis we have to deal with right now because AZ double jabs have expired. If people get a booster because of Omicron then great, I got mine yesterday to avoid Delta and the sort of illness I’ve seen in a number of AZ jabbed friend in their 40’s. The booster programme was too late.

For arguments sake let’s say it is milder and the good news keeps coming out of SA

This is a very dangerous game to play, if it turns out to be OK people will stop listening.