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She's genuinely gone bonkers. The rationalising of her disastrous budget and the reasons why she only lasted 7 weeks as PM (effectively 5 due to period of national mourning) do not indicate a sound mind.

Wish I'd made more effort to short that stock last week. For whatever reason EToro wasn't facilitating it.

Anyone but Trump for me. World would still be a much safer place with a normal Republican in the White House.

They might blame him though, or at least it might them realise he’s a charlatan.

Yep. There’ll be full-on MAGA believers that’ll have piled in a significant amount of their money at $50+ per share. If/when they end up losing 90% of that, they may not be quite so enthusiastic about Trump being their messiah.

Notice that BetFair now has Trump and Biden neck and neck at 2.34. Is Biden’s polling starting to improve?

Brilliant. Those shares have about as much underlying value as an NFT. The funny thing is that the price will have been inflated by Trump fans, and Trump fans only.

We are miles further up shit creak now than we were in May 1997 (two days before Hereford). Back on topic though, early signs of tide turning? BetFair no longer have Trump/Republicans odds-on to win.

I can't imagine that there'd be that many undecideds in an election that involves Donald Trump. Something that gives me hope is that, based on the 2020 election, the Democrats seem to have a very capable set of activists in various swing states that encourage both voter registration and getting...

I guess that's up to you to work out. Is there less than a 1 in 4 chance that the health of two late-70s men, both of whom are showing signs of aging and one of whom is overweight, will not deteriorate and prevent one or both from running in a presidential race in 9 months? I can see the...

You’ve answered your own question more or less. With 11/10 Trump and 2/1 Biden, you’re basically being presented with odds of approx 4/16 on that one of the 2 will be president. This is effectively betting that 2 men in their late 70s will both not die or suffer a significant health condition...

So what about this rumour that Michelle Obama is going to run as Dem candidate? The theory being that Biden will withdraw at or just before the convention and give her a clear run. Sounds a bit far fetched to me, but she is currently 3rd favourite to be the next US president in the betting...

I don’t think that’s realistically possible as a felony with potential jail time would be trial by jury, wouldn’t it? If this is the case, there’s no chance a 12-person jury wouldn’t have have 3-4 die-hard Trump fans on it.

I was wondering this. Is supporting Trump a generational thing, like supporting Brexit? In which case his vote will drop off with older generations dying over the last 4 years. Alternatively, is it an age thing, like supporting the Conservative Party? In which case Trump voters who’ve died...

Sorry for naive question, but is Biden a shoe-in as the Democrat candidate by being the incumbent, or does he have to win nominations as well? Seems like they might need to roll the dice and put a fresh face up judging by polling figures of an assumed Biden v Trump contest.

I’d love to agree with you, but the results that any polling company worth its name puts out are a bit more sophisticated than than just presenting percentages of raw data. They’ll factor in the leaning of the demographic appriately. Besides, all polling companies overestimated Biden’s popular...

You and I are on the same wavelength. However, the polls seem to be consistently pointing to a Trump win in the key states and an improvement on his popular vote overall.

From where I stand the US economy looks to be performing well in the aftermath of Covid and with inflation coming under control, and if it's any indication, the three main stock indices are at record highs (all over 20% higher than when Biden was inaugurated). So genuine question: what is it...

It's basically giving a large proportion of the population someone to blame for their life and prospects being a bit mediocre, innit? Same happened with Brexit; lots of leave voters were convinced the EU was to blame for whatever crap stuff was going on in their lives.

When I get news flashes on my watch, I genuinely look at them with a small hope that Trump has had a massive heart attack and dropped dead.