I agree. They stand to gain nothing from it at all. I expect they'd try and take Taiwan back, but if NATO genuinely was involved in full-scale conflict with Russia, then I can't see how we'd have the will, or the capacity to take on another nuclear-armed superpower. China is still very insular...
We have been hearing this stuff for quite a long time now. Without any detailed knowledge on the subject, I'm just not sure I believe it. They are spending something ridiculous like 40% of their State budget on their war effort, aren't they? I can't see how they can run out of weapons with that...
I'm not convinced. Pressing the button means the end of Russia, and most people in it. He might think he is on the way out and would be prepared to go out with a bang, but the chain of command might not fancy taking themselves and all their friends and families with him.
I don't think it's as simple as him 'deciding to press the button', is it?
I also think he has enough of Russia brainwashed that he could back down and sell it on the domestic stage that he had agreed his objectives.
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I said this at the time. If NATO had amassed troops all along the Ukraine border and said you put one boot across that border and you are at war with NATO, Putin would have only have had one option, and that was to not invade. But it would have been a hugely unpopular policy with the public...
Do you think there is a school of thought that says all the time Putin is bogged down in Ukraine, he can't attack anyone else? i.e. NATO countries? And the longer this stalemate goes on, the more time NATO has to prepare for when he does decide to attack a NATO state?
It’s a credit to the Ukrainians that we aren’t seeing terrorist attacks on civilians in the streets of Moscow. In fact, I think it’s a genuine surprise that we aren’t.
I have a (Northern Irish) client in Budapest and spoke to him about this recently. He said that the Ukrainians and the Hungarians are not the best of friends either, and that Ukraine has done some pretty dreadful things to the Hungarians on that side of their country. So allying with Russia...
I keep reading this about Putin not knowing how badly the war is going. But if we know, surely he does? I can't believe that the Prime Minister of Russia doesn't have access to international media, regardless of what his Generals tell him.
What do you mean by 'nuclear war'? What do you think would happen if Putin effectively uses the tactic that the US used to end WW2 in Asia by using a small tactical nuclear bomb somewhere in Ukraine and saying "Surrender now chaps, or we'll keep going until you do".
Would NATO really respond by...
I think people feel more upset now because Ukraine seems a lot closer to home somehow. The culture is more similar to ours, which makes it feel more real. Doesn't make it right, but I think that's human nature (people will obviously pretend it isn't).
I'm not saying I'm doubting the reports, but as soon as a war breaks it seems like one side always claims hospitals / schools / kindergartens have been attacked? Why would any army target them? It would surely be counter-productive? Cities are big places with lots of buildings, so it seems...