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rejecting the source also rejects the claim he was influencing SAGE. i do work in medical information and that early there was naff all real data to go by, all theoretical models and predictions. you could pick a model to support your position.

it's counter-intuitive i know, but that was the claim.

did we not learn from the Cummings attending SAGE story that he pushed lockdown? and we know Vallance was in favour of natural herd immunity. so im not clear who Johnson was listening to. i suspect neither until he was pushed to make a decision, by which time everyone was saying go to lockdown.

if Dispatches want to do some real journalism they should look into who made those decisions about hospital discharges and carehomes.

:shrug: i dont see another source counts as newsworthy. this is Vallance explaining the policy on 12th March

this isnt news. we know they favoured natural herd immunity approach, then when presented with model they changed policy.