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That is your right to call me out on that and I hope I am wrong but plotting infection rate on this website seems to show the same curve as Italy. In cricket terms, the runs per over rate is very similar. Italy 2,502 cases 71 deaths (March 3rd)...

“From this you can see why school closures have not been implemented yet, but at the point the orange line keeps climbing towards NHS capacity, closing schools will then curb transmission and keep demands on the NHS below breaking point.” The model suggests that is about the 10th April...

Sticking to the graph at the beginning of the thread. And as the one of the scientists agreed today, the spike is rising a lot quicker than they’d anticipated. Schools have closed a lot earlier than the model suggested. I’ve seen nothing to suggest we won’t follow Italy’s curve very closely...